Stat of the Day: 22nd April 2016

Thursday’s Result :

4.10 Warwick: Incentivise @ 13/2 BOG NR ()

The drying ground was against Incentivise so it was probably a bank-preserving move to withdraw the horse, and we go again on Friday. Nicky Richards has another handicap debutant – Baysbrown (3.05 Perth) – but we’ve missed the price there, alas. He looks to have a solid chance if you’re happy to take 4/1 in a very big field. Personally I’m not, but it’s a similar path we tread in the…

6.50 Plumpton

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A seriously moderate handicap, in which Anthony Honeyball’s handicap debutant, Acajou Des Bieffes, carries top weight. That says more about the oppo than it does about Anthony’s gelding, but there’s no escaping the master of Potwell Farm’s dab hand with ‘cap deb’s. In the last five years, he’s run 35 horses in a handicap for the first time, ten of which have won (29%) for a profit of 51.63 points. One of them was our own The Geegeez Geegee.

Honeyball has also notched ten winners at Plumpton in the last five years, this time from 28 runners (36%). And in the last year, he’s three from six at the track, one of which was our own The Geegeez Geegee!

Regular readers may know that sponsors Anthony’s yard, and that I have syndicated a number of horses (currently four) that he trains. I honestly have no knowledge from him tomorrow with regards this horse, so the selection is made purely on the basis of the data.

If his handicap first time record is very good, and his track form is even better, then Team AJH is flying at the moment with six winners from 18 runners in the last month (+17.75). If Acajou is ever going to win a race, it ought to be this one: up a mile in trip and on much better ground, pitched in against desperate opposition, I think the 7/2 with Hills and Paddy is worth playing, and suggest a one point win bet, Best Odds Guaranteed.

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