Monday’s Result :
3.50 Ayr: Sea Wolf @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up, headway 4f out, challenged 2f out, led over 1f out, pressed inside final furlong, headed towards finish, stayed on and only beaten by a head)
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ilzam at 7/1 E/W BOG.
Firstly, his trainer, Marco Botti’s record at this track in A/W contests over 6f to 1m stands at 29/181 (16% SR) for 39.4pts (+21.8% ROI) since the start of 2010, with 3 yr olds winning 16 of 80 (20% SR) for 57.6pts (+72% ROI), from which those running in 3yo only races are 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 63.2pts (+143.6% ROI)
Secondly, in the months of April to August inclusive, 3 to 5 yr olds travelling 5f to 1m2f on any ground bar heavy 16 to 60 days after a 2nd, 3rd or place finish LTO are 311/1699 (18.3% SR) for 304.9pts (+17.9% ROI) since the start of 2012, provided they actually won two starts ago.
And finally, the breeding. Ilzam is by Holy Roman Emperor whose offspring are a respectable 235/2264 (10.4% SR) for 181.4pts (+8% ROI) since the start of 2013, with those racing in handicaps over trips of 6 to 11.5 furlongs winning 131 of 1164 (11.3% SR) for 302.5pts (+26% ROI), whilst those handicappers aged 2 to 4 are 96/876 (11% SR) for 170.8pts (+19.5% ROI).
Holy Roman Emperor’s offspring aged 2 to 4 in handciaps over 6f to 11.5f are 91/753 (12.1% SR) for 260pts (+34.5% ROI)
And the call is…a 0.5pt E/W bet on Ilzam at 7/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Betbright and/or BetVictor, who were the three market leaders at 11.10pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS