Stat of the Day, 29th April 2016

Thursday’s Result :

4.10 Redcar: Dandyleekie @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up in touch, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and beaten by less than 1.5 lengths to become the latest of my picks to get close but not close enough!)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.20 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lightning Charlie at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

I think that there’s a distinct possibility that during my recent frustrating run of poor form (plenty of placers and not enough winners), I’ve almost been trying too hard to find the perfect selection for you and that I’ve possibly overegged the pudding and made things far more complicated than it needs to be.

So, with that thought in my mind, I’ve gone for one I fancy to win with some numbers that would back up my theory, but without splitting the atom or referencing pi to 100 decimal places!

Lightning Charlie is a 4 yr old gelding making his Lingfield bow, but he has already won over this trip on Polytrack at a higher grade at Kempton and comes here to represent Amanda Perrett, whose runners in A/W handciaps since the start of 2010 are 47 from 327 (14.4% SR) for 30.6pts (+9.4% ROI). 9.4% isn’t ground breaking or earth shattering, but any profit over a prolonged period of blind unfiltered betting is a good starting point.

Quite simply, from those 327 runners…

  • those priced at 6/4 to 12/1 are 43/254 (16.9% SR) for 50.9pts (+20% ROI)
  • those running at Classes 5 & 6 are 31/214 (14.5% SR) for 37.7pts (+17.6% ROI)
  • whilst those aged 4 to 6 are 24/124 (19.4% SR) for 47pts at an ROI of 37.9%.

Amanda’s Class 5 ‘cappers aged 4 and older and priced at 6/4 to 12/1 are 11/38 (29% SR) for 39.8pts (+104.7% ROI)

More specifically, though, here at Lingfield, her class 5/6 handicappers are 10/49 (20.4% SR) for 11.1pts (+22.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which her 3/4 yr olds are 7/35 920% SR) for 16.3pts (+46.5% ROI) and those priced at 6/4 to 5/1 are 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 23.4pts (+130.2% ROI)…

…leading to my closing set of numbers : Amanda Perrett’s 4 yr old runners in Class 5/6 Lingfield handicaps at 6/4 to 5/1 are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 12.86pts (+214.3% ROI) profit in the last 40 months.

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Lightning Charlie at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 who were the standout price as at 6.00pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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