Stat of the Day, 6th May 2016

Thursday’s Result :

4.20 Chester : Full Intention @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (With leader, edged left 1f out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd towards finish).

Friday’s pick goes in the…

6.45 Nottingham

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Ice Slice at 7/2 BOG.


This 5 yr old gelding is in sparkling form and arrives here looking for a hat-trick within 17 days, after back to back wins over a mile at Brighton. The latest of those wins was a pretty comfortable 4 lengths success three days when he seemed to still have plenty in the tank if needed.

Today’s jockey Ryan Tate was on board for both wins and together they are now 3 from 4. The horse also has one win and one runner-up finish from efforts over today’s course and distance and this is a good time of year to catch him, as he’s 2 from 4 in the month of May. It’s also worth noting that all four career wins have come on left handed tracks like this one.

And today’s stat? It’s actually quite simple, but looks complicated in print! I’m looking for horses turned out quickly after a win in similar race conditions to last time out. More precisely, UK Flat runners who were LTO winners in the previous 5 days and now fulfill all the following conditions…

Not on heavy ground / priced at evens to 13/2 / OR now 0 to 7lbs higher than LTO / Same Class or Up 1 from LTO / a trip -1.5f through to +1f from LTO / at least one previous win at today’s trip.

Such runners are 89/250 (35.6% SR) for 92.7pts (+37.1% ROI) since the start of the 2011 season, broken down as follows…

  • priced at 6/4 to 5/1 : 76/204 (37.25% SR) for 97.4pts (+47.7% ROI)
  • OR raised by 5 or 6lbs : 69/188 (36.7% SR) for 74.9pts (+39.9% ROI)
  • Same Class as LTO : 61/160 (38.1% SR) for 61.6pts (+38.5% ROI)
  • 1 to 3 days since last run : 40/102 (39.2% SR) for 42.9pts (+42% ROI)
  • at Class 4 : 18/58 (31% SR) for 39.8pts (+68.6% ROI)
  • trip of 8/8.5 furlongs : 18/36 (50% SR) for 36.3pts (+100.8% ROI)
  • here at Nottingham : 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 9.3pts (+48.8% ROI)
  • up in trip by just 0.5 furlongs : 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 12pts (+171.2% ROI)

And the call is…a 1pt win bet on Ice Slice at 7/2 BOG which was available pretty much everywhere at 12.25am! To see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Nottingham

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Here is today’s racecard…

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