Stat of the Day, 9th May 2016
Saturday’s Result :
4.30 Haydock: Voix d’Eau @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, mistake 8th, ridden after 4 out, went 2nd and hung left 3 out, no impression on winner, lost 2nd from last, one pace on run in).
Monday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Atrayu at 11/4 BOG.
Why?
This 3yr old gelding was a decent second at this class/trip a fortnight ago at Southwell, before finishing third here at Wolverhampton over course and distance two days later. He pulled too hard that day and was headed very late on. Luke Morris replaces the 3lb claimer from that last run and I’d expect Luke to exercise a little more control over the horse, who is drawn with the rail to help him and with his mark remaining unaltered, I’d expect him to be involved yet again.
That’s a feeling backed up by the fact that that 3-5 yr old A/W runners here at Wolverhampton who were 2nd or 3rd LTO 11 or more days ago and were also 2nd or 3rd two starts ago are 56 from 272 (20.6% SR) for 51.9pts (+19.1% ROI) at trips shorter than a mile since the start of 2013.
Of those 272 runners…
- handicaps have produced 37 winners from 201 (18.4% SR) and 63.1pts (+31.4% ROI) profit
- 3yo races have given 16/68 (23.5% SR) for 34.8pts (+81.2% ROI)
And from the above, 3yo handicaps have produced 14 winners from 59 (23.7% SR) for 38.9pts at an ROI of 65.9%, from which Class 6 runners are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 21.4pts (+71.2% ROI) and in Class 6 3yo handicaps, those qualifiers who are priced at 5/1 or shorter are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 7.5pts (+44% ROI)
And the call is…a 1pt win bet on Atrayu at 11/4 BOG which was available in over half a dozen places at 10.30pm To see what your bookie is offering, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Wolverhampton
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
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