Stat of the Day, 11th May 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

4.10 Wincanton: Thundering Home @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased leaders, jumped left 2nd, not much room next, jumped left and every chance 2 out, no impression on winner last, stayed on same pace).

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

1.50 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Marshgate Lane at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

Dual-code trainer Neil Mulholland’s team has been short of winners in recent weeks (0/21 in the last 17 days), but had two winners and a runner-up from three runners on Tuesday, prior to the 7.35 at Southwell, so it would appear that he’s coming into some form and on the A/W, he’s always worth a second glance.

And that’s because his A/W record since the start of 2013 reads 33 winners from 145 with the decent 22.8% strike rate yielding healthy level stakes profits of 94.9pts at an ROI of 65.5%. And today’s race parameters make Marshgate Lane of particular interest, because those 145 runners are…

  • in fields of 6-13 : 29/118 (24.6% SR) for 111.9pts (+94.9% ROI)
  • 5-7 yr olds : 26/102 (25.5% SR) for 91.4pts (+89.6% ROI)
  • ridden by Liam Keniry : 25/95 (26.3% SR) for 106.5pts (+112.1% ROI)
  • 8.5 to 12 furlongs : 21/88 (23.9% SR) for 87.8pts (+99.7% ROI)
  • Class 6 : 22/87 (25.3% SR) for 74.2pts (+85.3% ROI)
  • males : 24/86 (27.9% SR) for 52.7pts (+61.2% ROI)
  • at 2/1 to 9/1 : 20/64 (31.25% SR) for 51.5pts (+80.5% ROI)
  • and 16-45 days since last seen : 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 78pts (+123.8% ROI)

And of course, Marshgate Lane fits all of the above perfectly and comes here with a decent 3 from 8 record on A/W of his own. He’s a former dual Class 2 winner, including one over this course and distance and although he’s topweight here, were this a handicap he’d be quite well in.

Of his 3 from 8 record on the A/W, he’s 3/7 going left handed, 3 from 6 after breaks of 7 to 25 days and 3 from 5 at trips of 9.5 to 11 furlongs.

He’s also 2 from 4 when sent off below 4/1, 2 from 3 in fields of less than 10 runners and he ‘s 1 from 2 for both Neil Mulholland and Liam Keniry.

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Marshgate Lane at 3/1 BOG, a price available with over half a dozen firms at 6.35pm, but to see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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