Stat of the Day, 13th May 2016

Thursday’s Result :

6.45 Newmarket: Indira @ 9/2 BOG (=3.15/1 after 30p R4) WON at 2/1 (In touch, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden and found extra when pressed inside final furlong to win by 0.5 lengths).

Friday’s pick goes in the…

7.55 Hamilton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Extortion at 11/2 BOG.

Why?

This 3yr old looks a promising sort and hasn’t failed to finish in the first two home in any of his five runs to date. He won over course and distance here to close out his 2yo campaign back in September 2015 and ran very creditably to a 2.5 length defeat as a runner-up on his reappearance at Pontefract just 16 days ago, where he could quite easily have needed the run after a 30-week break.

I’d expect him to come on for the run, both trip and going are fine for him and he has that C&D win in the memory banks too, as hee seeks to become another winner on the flat here for…

…trainer Bryan Smart whose horses are 24/134 (17.9% SR) for 140.3ts (+104.7% ROI) over the last six seasons, and of those 134 runners…

  • males are 20/102 (19.6% SR) for 138.1pts (+135.4% ROI)
  • those running over this 6f trip are 17/83 (20.5% SR) for 114.4pts (+137.9% ROI)
  • on good ground, they are 14/50 (28% SR) for 119.4pts (+238.8% ROI)
  • and Paul Mulrennan (who rode Ellaal to victory for Stat Picks subscribers on Monday) is 4/16 (25% SR) for 33.2pts (+207.2% ROI)

And Bryan Smart’s males running 6f on Good Hamilton ground are 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 100pts (+384.5% ROI).

In addition to the above, it’s also worth noting that since the start of the 2012 season, 3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to a mile on the Flat who were runners-up last time out 16 to 60 days ago, having won their penultimate outing, returned to winning ways (thus making their form line read 121) on 112 of 506 occasions (22.1% SR), producing level stakes profits of 297.9pts (+58.9% ROI) in the process with 3yr olds winning 75 of 320 (23.4% SR) for 208.2pts (+65.1% ROI)

So the call is…a 1pt win bet on Extortion at 11/2 BOG with any one of the handful of firms quoting that price at 8.15pm and to see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.55 Hamilton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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