Stat of the Day, 14th May 2016

Friday’s Result :

7.55 Hamilton: Extortion @ 11/2 BOG 7th at 100/30 (Reluctant to enter stalls, awkwardly away, always behind, ran in snatches, never dangerous.).

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

4.10 Newmarket

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Venturous at 4/1 BOG.

Why?

Another promising three year old (hopefully in a better mood than Extortion was!) who has finished 51163 in his five starts to date, having won twice on good ground and being deemed good enough to contest a Group 1 race last season, holding further entries at that level for this year.

He looked to defy a 217-day absence when reappearing over today’s course and distance a fortnight ago, but was denied a clear run yet stayed on well enough to finish third on unsuitably softer ground than today, beaten by just two lengths.

He should come on for that run, one which he can be forgiven for needing and the quicker ground is sure to help, as is the close proximity of the rail. In addition to him being ready, his yard is in great form, as Charlie Appleby’s 21 runners over the fortnight have produced 7 winners and 7 placers.

We also have the benefit of Adam Kirby in the saddle. Adam is riding well at the moment and has an excellent record on the Appleby handicappers, winning 27 of 82 (32.9% SR) race so far, generating level stakes profits of 49.5pts at an ROI of 60.4%.

But wait, there’s more! Let’s now look at Charlie Appleby’s record on the Rowley track here at HQ, which shows 25 winners from 105 (23.8% SR) for profits of 91.1pts (+86.8% ROI), which in the context of today’s race, look like this…

  • males are 17/74 (23% SR) for 78.3pts (+105.8% ROI)
  • on Good to firm ground : 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 14.9pts (+33.1% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 31.9pts (+75.9% ROI)
  • handicappers are 9/31 (29% SR) for 18.2pts (+58.8% ROI)
  • Class 2 runners are 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 13.1pts (+46.8% ROI)
  • those last seen 11 to 25 days ago are 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 53.9pts (+224.7% ROI)

I should also point out that Charlie’s handicappers running anywhere 6 to 25 days after a top 4 finish last time out are 63/195 (32.3% SR) for 41.7pts (+21.4% ROI ), broken down as follows…

  • those priced at 9/1 and shorter are 63/179 (35.2% SR) for 57.7pts (+32.2% ROI)
  • males are 50/145 (34.5% SR) for 39.5pts (+27.2% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 39/121 (32.2% SR) for 35.5pts (+29.3% ROI)
  • those last seen 6 to 15 days ago are 36/103 (35% SR) for 28.8pts (+28% ROI)
  • those beaten by 0.25 to 3 lengths LTO are 21/58 (36.2% SR) for 40.6pts (+70% ROI)
  • Class 2 runners are 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 31.3pts (+61.3% ROI)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 34.3pts (+81.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 10/25 (40% SR) for 3.9pts (+15.6% ROI)
  • and those racing over 6 furlongs have 7 wins from 21 (33.3% SR) for profits of 5.8pts at an ROI of 27.7%.

And so the call is…a 1pt win bet on Venturous at 4/1 BOG with any one of over a dozen firms quoting that price at 8.30pm and to see what your bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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