Wednesday’s Result :
5.15 Bath : Zeeoneandonly @ 3/1 BOG (=2.7/1 after 10p R4) 2nd at 5/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner).
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Bedrock at 6/1 BOG.
Bedrock is trained by William Haggas who excels at producing winners in the odds range that I like to bet at (where possible!). Since the start of the 2008 season, this consistent yard has produced 142 winners from the 682 (20.8% SR) Flat handicappers sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 odds range. And these runners have more than paid for themselves, producing 187 pts level stakes profits at an appealing ROI of 27.4%.
Closer analysis of these runners, with this race in mind, shows that…
- those running within 6 to 25 days of their last outing are 78/330 (23.6% SR) for 173.5pts (+52.6% ROI)
- those racing on good to firm ground are 59/254 (23.2% SR) for 97.7pts (+38.5% ROI)
- and those ridden by Ryan Moore are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+71.9% ROI)
And those racing on good to firm ground, 6 to 25 days after their last run are 30/126 (23.8% SR) for 67.7pts (+53.7% ROI), with Ryan Moore riding 4 winners from 11 (36.4% SR) for 13.13pts (+119.4% ROI) profit.
More specifically now, William Haggas’ record here at Goodwood over the last 3 and a bit seasons stands at 15 winners from 55 (27.3% SR) for 22.9pts (+41.6% ROI) profit, of which…
- males are 11/38 (29% SR) for 23.7pts (+62.4% ROI)
- those with a top 3 finish LTO are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 28.3pts (+94.2% ROI)
- those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 13/28 (46.4% SR) for 20.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
- on good to firm ground, they are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 2.44pts (+22.2% ROI)
- those ridden by Ryan Moore are 4/10 (40% SR for 4.63pts (+46.3% ROI)
- and those running at Class 4 are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 4.5pts (+64.3% ROI)
And males who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and are now 6/1 and shorter have 5 wins and a place from 6 runs, producing profits 8.9pts (+148.3% ROI), from which they are 2/3 at Class 4, 2/3 under Ryan Moore and 2/2 on good to firm ground.
And finally, since the start of the 2012 campaign, 3 to 5 yrs old running on the Flat with three consecutive top 3 finishes behind them, but were losers (ie 2nd or 3rd) LTO 6-30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1462 (21.2% SR) occasions, generating 329.2pts (+22.5% ROI) level stakes profit in the process.
Of those 1462 runners…
- 3yr olds won 227 of 1060 (21.4% SR) for 268pts (+25.3% ROI)
- and those finishing 3rd LTO won 131 of 666 (19.7% SR) for 203.8pts (+30.6% ROI)
From which, 3yr olds who were 3rd LTO are 85/479 (17.8% SR) for 130.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which…
…those racing in 3yo only races are 53/316 (16.8% SR) for 150.2pts (+47.5% ROI), of which…
…those racing at trips of 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs are 20/118 (17% SR) for 109.6pts (+92.9% ROI)
And the call is…a 1pt win bet on Bedrock at 6/1 BOG with Coral, who were the best priced at 5.10pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS