Stat of the Day, 19th May 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

5.15 Bath : Zeeoneandonly @ 3/1 BOG (=2.7/1 after 10p R4) 2nd at 5/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner).

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

3.30 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Bedrock at 6/1 BOG.


Bedrock is trained by William Haggas who excels at producing winners in the odds range that I like to bet at (where possible!). Since the start of the 2008 season, this consistent yard has produced 142 winners from the 682 (20.8% SR) Flat handicappers sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 odds range. And these runners have more than paid for themselves, producing 187 pts level stakes profits at an appealing ROI of 27.4%.

Closer analysis of these runners, with this race in mind, shows that…

  • those running within 6 to 25 days of their last outing are 78/330 (23.6% SR) for 173.5pts (+52.6% ROI)
  • those racing on good to firm ground are 59/254 (23.2% SR) for 97.7pts (+38.5% ROI)
  • and those ridden by Ryan Moore are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+71.9% ROI)

And those racing on good to firm ground, 6 to 25 days after their last run are 30/126 (23.8% SR) for 67.7pts (+53.7% ROI), with Ryan Moore riding 4 winners from 11 (36.4% SR) for 13.13pts (+119.4% ROI) profit.

More specifically now, William Haggas’ record here at Goodwood over the last 3 and a bit seasons stands at 15 winners from 55 (27.3% SR) for 22.9pts (+41.6% ROI) profit, of which…

  • males are 11/38 (29% SR) for 23.7pts (+62.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 28.3pts (+94.2% ROI)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 13/28 (46.4% SR) for 20.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • on good to firm ground, they are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 2.44pts (+22.2% ROI)
  • those ridden by Ryan Moore are 4/10 (40% SR for 4.63pts (+46.3% ROI)
  • and those running at Class 4 are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 4.5pts (+64.3% ROI)

And males who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and are now 6/1 and shorter have 5 wins and a place from 6 runs, producing profits 8.9pts (+148.3% ROI), from which they are 2/3 at Class 4, 2/3 under Ryan Moore and 2/2 on good to firm ground.

And finally, since the start of the 2012 campaign, 3 to 5 yrs old running on the Flat with three consecutive top 3 finishes behind them, but were losers (ie 2nd or 3rd) LTO 6-30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1462 (21.2% SR) occasions, generating 329.2pts (+22.5% ROI) level stakes profit in the process.

Of those 1462 runners…

  • 3yr olds won 227 of 1060 (21.4% SR) for 268pts (+25.3% ROI)
  • and those finishing 3rd LTO won 131 of 666 (19.7% SR) for 203.8pts (+30.6% ROI)

From which, 3yr olds who were 3rd LTO are 85/479 (17.8% SR) for 130.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which…
…those racing in 3yo only races are 53/316 (16.8% SR) for 150.2pts (+47.5% ROI), of which…
…those racing at trips of 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs are 20/118 (17% SR) for 109.6pts (+92.9% ROI)

And the call is…a 1pt win bet on Bedrock at 6/1 BOG with Coral, who were the best priced at 5.10pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard…

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