Stat of the Day, 20th May 2016

Thursday’s Result :

3.30 Goodwood : Bedrock @ 6/1 BOG last of 10 at 3/1 (Tracked leaders in 4th, ridden and weakened over 2f out, eased over 1f out. Jockey Ryan Moore reported to the Stewards that the gelding lost its action.).

Friday’s pick goes in the…

7.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Take Cover at 5/1 BOG.

Why?

Jockey David Allen has won 5 of the 24 races (20.8% SR) in which he has ridden a male horse trained by David Griffiths and the resultant 15.5pts level stakes profits equate to a very healthy 64.6% ROI. Of those 24 runners, those racing on good to firm ground are 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 15.37pts (+170.7% ROI), but to be honest, this small dataset / niche angle isn’t the main reason for the selection today.

I’ve gone with Take Cover, as he seems an ideal fit for this contest. Firstly he’s one of three form horses coming into the race, but the other two are stepping up in class and one hasn’t been seen for over eight months. He arrives here with finishes of 23125 in his last five outings, but don’t let that 5 put you off.

He was actually fifth in a Group 3 contest (Palace House Stakes) 20 days ago and was only beaten by less than a length having been on the “wrong” side of the track. He “won” the far side race, but was narrowly beaten by four on the stands side, such is the nature of races with 20+ runners. So, whilst a Listed race is still a decent standard, he’s dropping down in class to run here and a similar level of performance should easily be enough today.

To date, he has won 8 of his 25 races (32% SR including a Group 2 success) for level stakes profits of 19.55pts at an ROI of some 78.2% and in the context of today’s race, he is…

  • 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 26.6pts (+147.5% ROI) at odds of 9/1 and shorter
  • 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 18.2pts (+101.1% ROI) on a straight run
  • 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 13.5pts (+90.3% ROI) over the 5f trip
  • 4/10 (40% SR) for 18.04pts (+180.4% ROI) 18 to 25 days after his last run
  • 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 10.36pts (+115.1% ROI) in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2/6 (33.3% SR) for 8.88pts (+148% ROI) in Listed races
  • 2/4 (50% SR) for 14.2pts (+355% ROI) on Good to Firm ground

And the call is…a 1pt win bet on Take Cover at 5/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.30pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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