Stat of the Day, 24th May 2016

Monday’s Result :

3.20 Leicester : Johnny B Goode @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Taken to post early, towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to chase winner inside final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by 1 length).

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

4.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Bayan Kasirga at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old mare has been running consistently well for a while now, winning 5 of her last 11 runs over the past 7 months, with a record in A/W handicaps in that time of 4 wins from 9 (44.4% SR) for 22.9pts (+254.4% ROI), and from those 9 A/W handicap runs, the following are of relevance today…

  • at this 1.4f trip : 4/8 (50% SR) for 23.9pts (+298.7% ROI)
  • in fields of 6-11 runners : 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 24.9pts (+355.6% ROI)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 25.9pts (+431.5% ROI) all over this track and trip
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 4/5 (80% SR) for 26.9pts (+538% ROI)
  • under today’s jockey, Natalie Hambling-Yates : 1/3 (33.3% SR) for 6.87pts (+229.1% ROI) with the win coming over today’s C&D
  • in female only races : 1/1 for 5.15pts

And here over this Wolverhampton 1m4f course and distance in fields of 6 to 11 runners at odds no longer than 8/1 : 4/5 (80% SR) for 26.9pts (+538% ROI)

In addition to the above, she’s trained by Richard Fahey who has an excellent record here on this track, but also excels at getting in-form course and distance winners to win again (and again!). In numerical terms, since the start of 2008, Mr Fahey’s LTO winners returning to the scene of a past C&D triumph are 36/166 (21.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+17.5% ROI) profit in handicaps.

Those numbers alone should be enough to prompt a wager, but in the context of this particular encounter, the following makes for interesting reading…

  • those who won by 2l or less LTO are 30/134 (22.4% SR) for 44.8pts (+33.4% ROI)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 32/123 (26% SR) for 33.8pts (+27.5% ROI)
  • on the A/W : 20/61 (32.8% SR) for 35.2pts (+57.7% ROI)
  • at Class 5 : 11/35 (31.4% SR) for 23.4pts (+67% ROI)
  • females are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 33.2pts (+114.5% ROI)
  • 6yr olds are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 20.8pts (+109.6% ROI)
  • over the 1m4f trip : 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 7.56pts (+39.8% ROI)

And so the call is…a 1pt win bet on Bayan Kasirga at 7/2 BOG with any of Bet365, Betbright and/or Betfair’s Sportsbook who were the best on offer at 7.10pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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