Monday’s Result :
3.20 Leicester : Johnny B Goode @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Taken to post early, towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to chase winner inside final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by 1 length).
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Bayan Kasirga at 7/2 BOG.
This 6yr old mare has been running consistently well for a while now, winning 5 of her last 11 runs over the past 7 months, with a record in A/W handicaps in that time of 4 wins from 9 (44.4% SR) for 22.9pts (+254.4% ROI), and from those 9 A/W handicap runs, the following are of relevance today…
- at this 1.4f trip : 4/8 (50% SR) for 23.9pts (+298.7% ROI)
- in fields of 6-11 runners : 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 24.9pts (+355.6% ROI)
- here at Wolverhampton : 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 25.9pts (+431.5% ROI) all over this track and trip
- at 8/1 and shorter : 4/5 (80% SR) for 26.9pts (+538% ROI)
- under today’s jockey, Natalie Hambling-Yates : 1/3 (33.3% SR) for 6.87pts (+229.1% ROI) with the win coming over today’s C&D
- in female only races : 1/1 for 5.15pts
And here over this Wolverhampton 1m4f course and distance in fields of 6 to 11 runners at odds no longer than 8/1 : 4/5 (80% SR) for 26.9pts (+538% ROI)
In addition to the above, she’s trained by Richard Fahey who has an excellent record here on this track, but also excels at getting in-form course and distance winners to win again (and again!). In numerical terms, since the start of 2008, Mr Fahey’s LTO winners returning to the scene of a past C&D triumph are 36/166 (21.7% SR) for 29.1pts (+17.5% ROI) profit in handicaps.
Those numbers alone should be enough to prompt a wager, but in the context of this particular encounter, the following makes for interesting reading…
- those who won by 2l or less LTO are 30/134 (22.4% SR) for 44.8pts (+33.4% ROI)
- those last seen 6-25 days ago are 32/123 (26% SR) for 33.8pts (+27.5% ROI)
- on the A/W : 20/61 (32.8% SR) for 35.2pts (+57.7% ROI)
- at Class 5 : 11/35 (31.4% SR) for 23.4pts (+67% ROI)
- females are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI)
- here at Wolverhampton : 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 33.2pts (+114.5% ROI)
- 6yr olds are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 20.8pts (+109.6% ROI)
- over the 1m4f trip : 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 7.56pts (+39.8% ROI)
And so the call is…a 1pt win bet on Bayan Kasirga at 7/2 BOG with any of Bet365, Betbright and/or Betfair’s Sportsbook who were the best on offer at 7.10pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…
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