Stat of the Day, 25th May 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

4.45 Wolverhampton : Bayan Kasirga @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Slowly into stride and carried slightly right start, behind, outpaced on outside into straight, soon ridden, headway over 1f out, went 4th inside final furlong, kept on well, not reach leaders).

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

7.40 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Native Robin at 4/1 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old gelding has taken brilliantly to fences, winning both efforts so far, including one win on good to soft ground like he’ll face today. He has won at both this C4 grade and also at Class 3 last time out, both under today’s jockey Nick Scholfield and both in handicaps.

He’s understandably up 5lbs for his latest win, but the drop in class should help, as should his yard’s record with horses coming down in grade.

Since the start of 2013, trainer Jeremy Scott’s horses dropping down a grade or two in Nh handicaps are 14 from 76 (18.4% SR) for 20.4pts (+26.9% ROI) profit, a nice little angle to keep onside of, but further inspection shows some interesting subsets of data that are all applicable today…

  • those dropping just one class are 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+25.3% ROI)
  • males are 13/62 (21% SR) for 23pts (+37.1% ROI)
  • those in the top 6 LTO are 12/47 (25.5% SR) for 30.3pts (+64.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 10/1 are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 44.6pts (+103.8% ROI)
  • over 2m3.5f to 2m6.5f : 9/31 (29% SR) for 34.8pts (+112.3% ROI)
  • those last seen 46-240 days ago : 9/30 (30% SR) for 32pts (+106.7% ROI)
  • chasers are also 9/30 (30% SR), but for 26.6pts (+88.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 17.5pts (+58.2% ROI)
  • those dropping from Class 3 LTO are 7/28 (25% SR) for 19.5pts (+69.5% ROI)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 3/5 (60% SR) for 20pts (+400% ROI)
  • and LTO winners are 2 from 4 950% SR) for 1.71pts at an ROI of 42.9%

And so the call is…a 1pt win bet on Native Robin at 4/1 BOG with any one of the half dozen or so bookies offering that price at 6.30pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.40 Newton Abbot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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