Tuesday’s Result :
8.20 Lingfield : Duke of North @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 8/1 (Raced wide, in touch, headway to track leaders over 4f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on to within a length of the winner)
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
You’re Fired at 7/1 BOG
This 5 yr old gelding comes here in cracking form, having finished 11012 in his last 5 runs, winning 3 of 4 Class 2 races in that sequence, before going down by just 2 lengths over an inadequtely short 7f in a Listed contest Haydock last time out, 25 days ago.
The step back up in trip to amore suitable distance and the drop in class back to Class 2 should both help his cause today and win or lose, I can’t help but feel that 7/1 is big. He was ahead of the 111-rated Markez in that Haydock race and only beaten by highly-regarded So Beloved and running back down at C2 off just 108, he really could be underestimated here today.
He has already won 6 of 18 starts, but today’s conditions put him in an even better light, as he is…
- 6/12 in fields of 5 to 15 runners
- 6/11 when running at least one bend
- 4/6 after a short 3 to 5 week break
- 2/2 over this trip
- 1/1 here at Nottingham
- 1/1 over course and distance
- 1/1 under today’s jockey and he has also won on good to firm ground in the past.
In addiiton to the above, since the start of 2012 season, 5yr olds racing over 5f to 1m6f on the Flat 16-60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th last out, who had also won their penultimate outing (ie form of 12, 13 or 14), got back to winning ways on 60 of 363 (16.5% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 83.8pts at an ROI of 23.1% and with today’s race in mind…
- those who last ran 16-45 days ago are 56/327(17.1% SR) for 97.1pts (+29.7% ROI)
- handicappers are 51/316 (16.1% SR) for 76.1pts (+24.1% ROI)
- those beaten by a head to 5L LTO are 52/286 (18.7% SR) for 112.7pts (+39.4% ROI)
- males are 45/266 (16.9% SR) for 80.6pts (+30.3% ROI)
- those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 47/259 (18.2% SR) for 94.1pts (+36.3% ROI)
- on good ground or quicker : 43/228 (18.9% SR) for 108.2pts (+47.5% ROI)
- over 5 to 9 furlongs : 41/218 (18.8% SR) for 98.3pts (+45.1% ROI)
- at Class 2 : 9/45 (20% SR) for 35.2pts (+78.3% ROI)
AND… male handicappers beaten in to 2nd or 3rd place by a head to 5 lengths, 16 to 45 days ago are 28/130 (21.5% SR) for 95.7pts (+73.6% ROI)
…so the call today is…a 1pt win bet on You’re Fired at 7/1 BOG with Betfair’s Sportsbook, which was the standout price at 6.40pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS