Wednesday’s Result :
3.30 Nottingham : You’re Fired @ 7/1 BOG non-runner (Backed in to 7/2 and then withdrawn as reportedly being “off-colour”)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Broughton’s Fancy at 3/1 BOG
This 3yr old filly is in great form, having finished 3113 in her last four outings, all over today’s 7f trip, a distance that she is 3 from 8 at this year alone. She seems to either win or be knocking on the door and her recent form puts her in a micro system I follow for consistent younger Flat horses.
The rules are actually a lot simpler than they look in text, but here goes…
On the Flat at 7f and beyond. 3 to 5 yr olds running in races that 3yr olds are eligible to enter. Must have been in the first three home in each of their last three runs, but mustn’t have won LTO and has ran in the last 6 to 30 days.
SInce the start of the 2012 campaign, there has actually been 1678 such runners and the 344 winners not only reflects a healthy 20.5% strike rate, but also generates decent level stakes profits of 398.6pts at an ROI of 23.8%. I do, however, appreciate that a micro with 500 bets a season might be too much activity for some of you, so let’s break those 1678 runners down as follows…
- 3 yr olds are 255/1209 (21.1% SR) for 322.3pts (+26.7% ROI)
- those beaten by 1 to 10 lengths LTO are 227/1127 (20.1% SR) for 411.3pts (+36.5% ROI)
- on Good / Good to Soft ground : 162/851 (19% SR) for 198.1pts (+23.3% ROI)
- in 3yo races : 150/797 (18.8% SR) for 289.4pts (+36.3% ROI)
- female runners are 112/571 (19.6% SR) for 249.3pts (+43.7% ROI)
- at Class 5 : 129/471 (27.4% SR) for 113.5pts (+24.1% ROI)
- at the 7f trip : 62/273 (22.7% SR) for 121.1pts (+44.4% ROI)
- in female only races : 50/273 (18.3% SR) for 133.3pts (+48.8% ROI)
- in races just for 3 yr old females : 15/91 (16.5% SR) for 142.9pts (+157% ROI)
…so the call today is…a 1pt win bet on Broughton’s Fancy at 3/1 BOG with any one of around a half dozen firms offering the same odds at 7.10pm, although Betway (non-BOG until morning) were a shade longer at 100/30, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…
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