Friday’s Result :
4.55 Catterick : Best Trip @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Soon led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on but beaten by a length.)
Saturday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Moon River at 4/1 BOG
This 4yr old filly has won 4 of 7 this year already and is 3 from 5 over this trip. She’s won 1 of her two previous runs in this Class 3 grade, but has been running and winning off higher marks at a higher level than this in her recent past. She’s turned back out down in class, four weeks after her last run and this is also a positive, as she has won 5 of 11 racing 14 to 31 days since her last run.
And although Doncaster hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for trainer Mick Appleby in general, his 4 and 5 yr old handicappers have more than held their own, winning 8 of 54 (14.8% SR) for 41.5pts (+76.8% ROI) profit here on Town Moor since the start of the 2011 season. Of those 54 runners, those turned back out after a break of 12 to 60 days are 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 59.5pts (+165.2% ROI).
Today’s jockey Robert Havlin also reads the track very well, with a personal record of 12 wins from 52 here since the start of 2013 and that 23/1% strike rate has yielded modest profits of 9.12pts (+17.6% ROI) overall, but in handicap company he is 6/24 (25% SR) for 11.03pts (+46% ROI).
And now full circle back to the horse…
Moon River is dropping in class today and since the start of the 2011 season, Mick Appleby’s Flat handicap runners dropping down a class or two are 30/216 (13.9% SR) for 80.2pts (+37.1% ROI), with the following of particular interest today…
- those beaten by more than 2 lengths LTO are 27/179 (15.1% SR) for 98.1pts (+54.8% ROI)
- those last seen 11 to 60 days ago are 26/144 (18.1% SR) for 118.6pts (+82.4% ROI)
- those priced at 9/4 to 10/1 are 23/131 (17.6% SR) for 45.3pts (+34.6% ROI)
- and those racing over 7/7.5 furlongs are 5/26 (19.2% SR) for 7.53pts (+29% ROI)
And a small, Appleby class dropper micro for your notebooks? Go on, then! Based around those parameters above, those now priced at 11/8 to 10/1, beaten by more than 2 lengths 11 to 75 days ago are 20/84 (23.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+78.9% ROI). Of the 84, those racing over 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 35.7pts (+111.5% ROI)
…and so the call today is…a 1pt win bet on Moon River at 4/1 BOG with Coral, who were the standout of the majors at 6.05pm, although the smaller Netbet were matching this, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply…
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