Wednesday’s Result :
3.20 Yarmouth : Bargain Buy @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Took keen hold, prominent, led over 3f out, headed 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Capo Rosso at 6/1 BOG
No win in 15 hardly breeds confidence or gets the adrenaline flowing, but he has been running in much better company for most of his outings since last winning in a Class 3 event like this one, back in October 2014.
That said, he has finished as a runner-up in each of his last three contests in this grade, getting closer and closer to winning despite a rising handicap mark (beaten by 1L off 91, then by 0.75L off 93 and then by just a neck off 94, the same mark as today).
The return to Haydock (he has won here before) and the reacquaintance with jockey Richard Kingscote could well be all it needs to eke out hat little bit extra needed to win, especially as horse and jockey are already 6/28 together and Richard has a great record here at this track.
Since the start of the 2010 season, Richard has ridden 50 winners here at Haydock from 276 attempts, with the resultant 18.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 136.4pts at an ROI of 49.4%. And of those 276 Haydock rides…
- he’s 43/206 (20.9% SR) for 128.3pts (+62.3% ROI) on Tom Dascombe’s horses
- he’s 28/157 (17.8% SR) for 64.8pts (+41.3% ROI) in handicaps
- and 24/105 (22.9% SR) for 74.8pts (+71.2% ROI) on the Dascombe handicappers.
Furthermore, he’s 20/50 (40% SR) for 43.1pts (+86.2% ROI) on the Dascombe handicappers priced at 6/1 and shorter and 9/31 (29% SR) for 78.2pts (+252.3% ROI) in this Class 3 grade.
…so today’s play is a 1pt win bet on Capo Rosso at 6/1 BOG with any of the handful of bookies quoting those odds at 6.00pm. For a fuller market overview, simply…
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