Stat of the Day, 14th June 2016

Monday’s Result :

8.20 Windsor: Ex Lover @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 11/4 (Held up in touch, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong)

Even allowing for a hefty 25p Rule 4 after the overnight favourite defected, Ex Lover was very heavily backed. But he wasn’t man enough to cope on this first career start, eventually fading under hands and heels. I’d be astonished if he isn’t a lot better than that – especially given the flurry of money for him tonight – and he’s another notebook sort. On we go…

8.10 Beverley:


Renfrew Street at 2/1 BOG


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There is a lot of racing on Tuesday, including at Royal Ascot, a meeting I’ve dealt with elsewhere. But there is not a lot to go at outside of the Royal meeting, and this is a strong looking set of stats.

Renfrew Street is trained by Mark Johnston, a trainer who does very well both at Beverley and when buddying up with Franny Norton.

In the last five years, Johnston has saddled 187 handicap runners at Beverley, with 47 of them winning (25%) That was for a profit of +46.56 points.

When Franny rides his Beverley ‘cappers, he’s 9 from 37 (24%) for a small profit.

But here’s the rub. Johnston is a very fine exponent of weight for age allowances, which are especially generous for three-year-olds against their elders over middle distances in the early part of the season. The WFA (weight for age) scale awards a greater concession to three-year-olds the longer the distance and the earlier in the season the race…

There are quite a lot of these races at Beverley, and Johnston has hoovered up 15 from 35 runners under such conditions – between the months of May and August – since 2003. They were collectively worth a profit of +30.5 points.

However, since 2012, he’s won a ridiculous 10 from 14 (71%) for a profit of +19 points under these conditions. The form string reads 11111961154111.

The filly herself is stepping up in distance having won well last time. That win followed a fourth placed finish in a race which tops the Hot Form report – four of the eight subsequent runners have won.

2/1 is at the very edge of an acceptable price for a Stat of the Day pick, but Renfrew Street looks to have an outstanding chance and is value to my eye at that price. Do…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Beverley

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Here is today’s racecard…

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