Tuesday’s Result :
4.15 Brighton : Dltripleseven @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Keen, tracked leader, joined leader over 4f out, ridden and every chance 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
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Bastille Day at 3/1 BOG
Despite running three weeks ahead of the official Bastille Day, I’m hoping that David Elsworth’s charge can give me something to celebrate on my first day back in the SotD hotseat.
This 4yr old gelding comes here with a 2 from 3 record on this track, with all three runs coming over this 1m trip with his latest run being a course and distance win at Class 3 some 20 days ago. His two previous C&D wins have come after 20 and 26 days rest, so today seems the ideal time for him to go again, especially dropping down in class.
This drop in class is a ploy that has proved successful for Mr Elsworth in recent years, especially if there’s any sniff of money around for his horses, as since the start of 2011, his handicap class droppers priced at 13/8 to 11/2 have won 13 of 40 (32.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 23.8pts at an ROI of 59.5%.
Of those 40 runners, the following are of interest today…
- those dropping 1 class are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 12.8pts (+40% ROI)
- 4yr olds are 4/10 (40% SR) for 6.97pts (+69.7% ROI)
- Class 4 runners are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 15.56pts (+172.9% ROI)
- those running at Kempton are 3/6 (50% SR) for 8pts (+133.3% ROI)
- and those who ran at Class 3 LTO are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 12.4pts (+310% ROI)
…so today’s play is a 1pt win bet on Bastille Day at 3/1 BOG with either of Coral or BetVictor, who were the market leaders at 7.20pm. For the other firms’ prices, simply…
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