Wednesday’s Result :
6.50 Kempton : Bastille Day @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Mid-division, headway from 3f out, led over 1f out, ran on to win by 0.75 lengths, doing enough.)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
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It’s Only Mossy at 11/2 BOG
Jennie Candlish’s horses are in good nick of late, with 3 of her 12 runners winning so far trhis month, but more crucially she is 2 from 3 in the last 7 days and here she gives a fourth UK/yard outing to It’s Only Mossy since the 3yr old gelding crossed the Irish Sea from Sean Hennessy’s yard.
The horse has now finished 113 in his three runs for his new handler, winning twice on the tapeta at Wolverhampton before a below par effort in third place at Hamilton last time out. The ground was possibly a little too quick for him that day and he looked a little jaded on his third run inside 16 days after previously being unraced for almost 24 weeks.
He’s now had the best part of 6 weeks to recuperate and the switch back to Tapeta (where he’s 2/2) should also help. He won his only other previous run at this grade and is 2 from 3 in handicaps, all priced below 8/1.
In addition to the above information, it’s noteworthy that 3 to 5 yr old horses competing over 5f to a mile in the April to September period have won 290 of 1554 races (18.7% SR) when turned out 16 to 60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th, having won their penultimate race.
Basically, horses with a formline ending in 12, 13 or 14, last seen 16-60 days ago. That 18.7% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 433.2pts at an ROI of 27.9% since the start of 2012 and I’m hoping It’s Only Mossy can add another 5.5pts to that tally here.
…so today’s play is a 1pt win bet on It’s Only Mossy at 11/2 BOG with SkyBet, who were best priced at 7.30pm, although Betfred, Totesport and Betway were offering the same price, but don’t/won’t go BOG until morning. For all the other firms’ prices, simply…
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