Monday’s Result :
5.25 Wolverhampton : Paladin @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (On the rail and led inside final furlong, but like so many of our runners this month, was nailed late on and beaten by a quarter length after having been backed in to less than 46% of our advised odds!)
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Pembroke House at 7/2 BOG
This 9yr old gelding is a very consistent sort over fences, having finished in the firat two home six times from 10 starts and his last six results are 12P222 and he should really be coming here off the back of a win last time out. Unfortunately he stumbled badly at the last, lost all momentum and went down by 2 lengths at Towcester four weeks ago. That said, there’s no disgrace in getting beaten by a Kerry Lee chaser!
Class and going are fine today and he gets to go off the same mark as last time out, but (with no disrespect intended to James Banks) there has been a change of jockey, with Sam Twiston-Davies now taking over in the hope/expectation that he’ll just eke a bit more of this one.
He’s trained by Sarah-Jayne Davies, better known for Point to Point runners, but has also started to make a little bit of a name for herself under Rules over fences, especially in Class 4/5 handicap chases with horses priced at 2/1 to 15/2, where her runners are 11/45 (25% SR) for profits of 14.9pts (+33.1% ROI) over the last three and a half years or so.
With today’s race in mind, those 45 chasers are…
- 11/44 (25%) for 15.9pts (+36.2%) as males
- 9/36 (25%) for 9.08pts (+25.2%) had a top 5 finish LTO
- 6/19 (31.6%) for 16.6pts (+87.4%) last ran 16-90 days ago
- and 4/8 (50%) for 10.38pts (+129.8%) on Soft ground
AND…horses fitting all four of the above are 3/4 (75%) for 7.84pts (+195.9%) with the loser finishing as a runner-up!
…so today’s play is a 1pt win bet on Pembroke House at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who led the way at 5.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS