Stat of the Day, 29th June 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

6.50 Stratford : Pembroke House @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up in rear but in touch, headway 3 out, never on terms)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.30 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Invermere at 4/1 BOG


This 3 yr old filly has won 2 of her last 4 starts, including her last outing four weeks ago, when she was a winner over this course and distance under today’s jockey Tony Hamilton. She did just enough that day to prevail in a tight race and with just a 1lb rise in weight to contend with, that knowledge of the track could prove very beneficial.

Since 2008, Richard Fahey’s handicappers who were LTO winners and are now sent back to a venue where they had previously won over track and trip are 36 from 166 (21.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 30.85pts at an ROI of 18.6% and in respect of this particular event, those 166 runners are…

  • 34/139 (24.5%) for 51.1pts (+36.7%) over trips of 6 to 12 furlongs
  • 33/135 (24.4%) for 32.9pts (+24.4%) after a rest of 1 to 4 weeks
  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 14.9pts (+34.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 9.95pts (+27.7%) from his female runners
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 27.9pts (+82.1%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • and they are 2 from 6 933.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%) here at Catterick.

Moreover, Mr Fahey has a decent record at this venue too, especially in Class 2 to 4 handicaps, where his horses are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 36.3pts (+40.3% ROI) since the start of 2008 and we can break those down as follows…

  • those racing over 6/7f are 11/62 (17.7%) for 19.2pts (+31%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 14/54 (25.9%) for 33.7pts (+62.4%)
  • those with 1 to 3 previous career wins are 11/48 (22.9%) for 35.9pts (+74.8%)
  • those with 5-10 previous career runs are 7/22 (31.8%) for 21.2pts (+96.6%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground, they are 4/14 (28.6%) for 30.7pts (+218.9%)

AND…those priced at 8/1 and shorter over 6/7 furlongs with 1-2 previous wns from less than 10 outings are 6/12 (50% SR) for 20.1pts (+167.2% ROI), including Invermere herself when winning over course and distance last time out.

…but for now, the call is a 1pt win bet on Invermere at 4/1 BOG which was on offer pretty much everywhere at 8.05pm, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Catterick

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Here is today’s racecard…

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