Wednesday’s Result :
3.30 Catterick : Invermere @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, came near side in straight, ridden over 1f out, stayed on into 2nd well inside final furlong, no chance with winner)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Pharoh Jake at 4/1 BOG
The horse : has won twice and placed once from his last four starts, including a win here over course and distance last time out. He’s the only course winner in the field and the only distance winner too, so he’s obviously the only one to have won over track and trip!
He’s 5/30 on the Flat, which is reasonable enough for a lower grade horse, but closer inspection shows that all five wins are from 18 races over 5/5.5 furlongs and that he’s 3 from 7 on soft ground or worse and has 1 win and 1 place from 2 Newbury runs. In fact, he has won 3 of 6 soft ground or worse handicaps over 5/5.5f furlongs.
His jockey : Aaron Jones has a record of 12 wins from 44 (27.3% SR) for profits of 20.1pts (+45.6% ROI) in apprentice handicaps on horses priced at 7/1 or shorter.
And the trainer : John Bridger has a record of 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 9.46pts (+72.8% ROI) with LTO winners priced at 6/4 to 51, who have also previously won over course and distance. Such runners are 4 from 7 for 11.76pts turned back out 4 to 15 after that LTO win.
…so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Pharoh Jake at 4/1 BOG from either Betfair’s Sportsbook or Hills, who were the market leaders at 5.35pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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