Sat TV Trends: 2nd July 2016

The C4 cameras head to Sandown Park and Haydock Park this Saturday with the Coral-Eclipse, plus the Lancashire Oaks and Old Newton Cup the clear highlights – as always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

2.00 – Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y CH4

14/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/14 – Had won at Sandown before
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/14 – Won last time out
6 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

2.35 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y CH4

13/14 – Carried 8-8 or more
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
12/14 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
12/14 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
10/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had run at Sandown before
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (4) last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
8 of the last 10 winners came from stall 8 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.10 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y CH4

13/13 – Had at least 1 previous run already that season
13/13 – Had never run at Sandown before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won over 7f or further before
9/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/13 – Favourites that finished in the top three
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 10 winners came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

3.45 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y CH4

Coral Eclipse Stakes Past Winners

2015 – Golden Horn (4/9 fav)
2014 – Mukhadram (14/1)
2013 – Al Kazeem (15/8 fav)
2012 – Nathaniel (7/2)
2011 – So You Think (4/11 fav)
2010 –  Twice Over (13/8 fav)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/7 fav)
2008 – Mount Nelson (7/2)
2007 – Notnowcato (7/1)
2006 –David Junior (9/4)
2005 –Oratorio (12/1)
2004 –Refuse To Bend (15/2)
2003 –Falbrav (8/1)
2002 – Hawk Wing (8/15 fav)

Coral Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

14/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Won by a previous Group One winner
11/14 – Placed favourites
12/14 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
11/14 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
9/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
9/14 – Placed in their last race
7/14 – Winning Favourites
5/14 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/14 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season (2 winners)
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 9/2

Other Coral Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994 & 1993
Godolphin-owned horses won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996 & 1995
John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

1.45 – bet365 Handicap Cl3 1m2f95y CH4

3 previous runnings
All three past winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
All three past winners carried 9-3 or more
All three past winners officially rated between 88-94

2.15 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y CH4

11/14 – Had won at least at Listed class before
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/14 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Had won between 1-3 times before
9/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/14 – Trained by John Gosden
5/14 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Trained by David Elsworth
2/14 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/14 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Miss Marjurie was third in the race 12 months ago
Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket

2.50 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y CH4

Recent Old Newton Cup Winners

2015 – Notarised (12/1)
2014 – De Rigueur (9/1)
2013 – Star Lahib (8/1)
2012 – Number Theory (8/1)
2011 – Halicarnassus (14/1)
2010 – Dangerous Midge (17/2)
2009 – Red Merlin (15/2 jfav)
2008 – Mad Rush (5/2 fav)
2007 – Dansili Dancer (15/2)
2006 – Consular (16/1)
2005 – Zeitgeist (9/1)
2004 – Alkaased (7/1)
2003 – Collier Hill (8/1)
2002 – Sun Bird (40/1)

Key Old Newton Cup Betting Trends

13/14 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Won no more than 5 times before
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/14 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/14 – Raced within the last 7 days
8/14 – Carried 8-10 or less
8/14 – Irish or USA bred
8/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/14 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/14 – Had won a race at Haydock before
4/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of the last 3)
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6 of the last 10 winners raced at Ascot (4) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5 of the last 10 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 11/1

3.25 – Cash Out At bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 21% (+£41) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has just a 5% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Baron has just a 5% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby has just a 3% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Dods has just a 3% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

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