Stat of the Day, 5th July 2016

Monday’s Result :

5.40 Worcester : Barman @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd before 3 out, led before 2 out, kept on well to win by 4 lengths)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

5.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Isharah at 5/1 BOG


Similar to Barman on Monday, we have a lightly horse representing a hugely successful trainer/jockey partnership, but the main attractiuon isn’t the actual partnership itself!

This will be Isharah‘s fourth outing to date and he’s one of only two previous course winners in this field today, when he landed a Class 5 maiden over 9.5f here two starts and just over 4 months ago. He returned to action stepped up to today’s trip for his handicap debut at Ripon 19 days ago, but looked like he needed the run after 108 days off the track.

He was beaten by just under 8 lengths that day and wasn’t helped by being badly hampered early on, but did prove he can get this trip. He’s been eased a pound in the weights and returning to a familiar surface back down in class are all positives for me today, as is the fact he races with a 13lb weight for allowance afforded to 3yr olds in open age handicaps, an allowance well exploited by his trainer Mark Johnston…

…whose 3yr olds have won 86 of 382 (22.5% SR) 3yo+ handciaps over 1m4f to 2m at Casses 2 to 5 since the start of 2008 with those runners generating 90pts profit at an ROI of 23.6%. Of particular interest/relevance from those races are the facts that…

  • those last seen 6 to 60 days ago are 79/352 (22.4%) for 95.5pts (+27.1%)
  • those priced 9/4 to 14/1 are 63/291 (21.7%) for 101.7pts (+34.9%)
  • those racing over this 1m4f trip are 45/222 (20.3%) for 36.5pts (+16.4%)
  • those ridden by Joe Fanning are 30/137 (21.9%) for 19.7pts (+14.4%)
  • Class 5 runners are 25/106 (23.6%) for 27.8pts (+26.2%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 5/30 (16.7%) for 12.3pts (+40.9%)

…so the play is a 1pt win bet on Isharah at 5/1 BOG with either Bet365 or Hills, who led the market at 6.10pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 5.55 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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