Stat of the Day, 6th July 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

5.55 Wolverhampton : Isharah @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, stayed on well, never reached winner who held on by a neck.) Joe Fanning is normally an excellent judge of pace, but I can’t help but feel he let the winner have too much of a free role up front. Isharah finished strongest of all, but was either set for home fractionally too late or he’d been held back slightly too far.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

5.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mukaabra at 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has a handicap mark of 80, but gets a very useful 9lbs weight for age allowance here and she has made an excellent start to her racing career, finishing 113 in her three starts to date.

She won on debut over 7f on Lingfield’s A/W track in February, before an 11 week break ahead of a turf debut over this 1m trip on good to firm ground at Newmarket in May. She then returned to that same course and distance, but on unsuitably good to soft ground where she finished just 2.25 lengths behind a horse rated 4lbs better than her, but who carried a pound less than her after allowances.

No disgrace in losing that race at all, but a return to quicker ground should see her continue her progression here.

My confidence is boosted by the fact that since the start of the 2012 Flat campaign, horses aged 3 to 5 who won their penultimate run bfore being beaten into 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO 16-60 days ago are 261/1456 (17.9% SR) for 345.7pts (+23.7% ROI) over trips of a mile and shorter. And of those 1456 runners…

  • those now rated 0 to 3lbs higher than LTO are 198/1044 (19%) for 395.2pts (+37.9%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO are 186/958 (19.4%) for 267.6pts (+27.9%)
  • females are 100/527 (19%) for 395.2pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing on good to firm ground are 102/496 (20.6%) for 189.8pts (+38.3%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 65/333 (19.5%) for 110.8pts (+33.3%)

And in additon to the above, Mukaabra‘s yard is in fine form too, with 4 winners and 3 placers from just 10 runners over the last week, including a win in Tuesday’s SotD race!

Trainer James Tate is also 6/24 in handicaps here at Yarmouth over the last 2.5 seasons, whilst jockey Martin Harley’s record here over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs stands at 16/67 (23.9%) for 68.6pts profit at an ROI of 102.4%, of which he’s 11/35 (31.4%) for 33.2pts (+94.9%) on ground quicker than good…

…so, the play is a 1pt win bet on Mukaabra at 3/1 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms showing that price at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 5.10 Yarmouth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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