Stat of the Day, 9th July 2016

Friday’s Result :

3.00 Ascot : Afandem @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/2 (Raced keenly, pressed winner, ridden over 1f out, edged right and lost place inside final furlong, one paced and beaten by a length and three quarters)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

4.50 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Muthmir at 5/1 BOG


He was only 8th of 11 and beaten by 4.5 lengths when seen last at Haydock 7 weeks ago, but a return to York and to quicker ground are both positives today.

He also drops down in class from Group 2 competition and he’s in good hands with course specialist William Haggas, whose record here at York since 2009 is excellent : 39 winners from 177 (22% SR) runners have yielded level stakes profits of 86.8pts at an impressive ROI of some 49%.

Those figures were valid at the start of play Friday, but the yard had 2 winners from 4 at York on Friday too, that aren’t counted in my stats today, but in the context of today’s race, my top 10 facts about those 177 runners are…

  • 35/146 (24%) for 99.5pts (+68.2%) from those with 2 to 15 previous runs
  • 35/134 (26.1%) for 98.8pts (+73.8%) in the June to September period
  • 35/130 (26.9%) for 115.5pts (+88.9%) from those with a run in the last 45 days
  • 27/126 (21.4%) for 66.9pts (+54.7%) on Good / Good to Firm ground
  • 31/112 (39.7%) for 100.9pts (+90.1%) at odds of 11/4 to 11/1
  • 20/89 (22.5%) for 39.3pts (+44.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 14/63 (15.2%) for 25.6pts (+40.7%) in Class 1 contests
  • 14/60 (23.3%) for 28.6pts (+47.7%) from those whose last outing was either Gr2, Gr3 or Listed
  • 5/25 (20%) for 17.32pts (+69.3%) in Listed races
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 35.82pts (+511.8%) ridden by Andrea Atzeni

…but for now, the call is a 1pt win bet on Muthmir at 5/1 BOG with any of BetVictor, Coral and/or SkyBet who were offering that price at 5.55pm or you can get 5/1 non-BOG with Betway and/or 32Red if you like, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 York

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Here is today’s racecard…

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