Race of the Day, 12th July 2016

Race of the Day – Bath 14:30

As you can see from the above graphic, this is a fillies handicap being run over almost six furlongs on good to firm ground.

The first thing that immediately stands out is that Nag’s Wag has some daylight between herself and the rest of the field on the speed ratings. On the right hand side of the race card, under the heading ‘SR’, you will see that her speed rating is 77, with the next best being 70. Now of course we don’t go and blindly back her on the back of just this piece of information, but it’s a handy start.

Quick March is trained by Roger Charlton and from the green c1 and c5 under his name, it tells us that he has pretty useful short term and longer term course form. By clicking on the black trainer icon below the horses name, it produces the drop down box enabling us to have a closer look at the trainers current form, and course form. As we can see in the above card, his general recent form is useful enough, however his course form over the past year is exceptional. Therefore this is definitely something to bear in mind.

Moving on to the ‘Instant Expert’ tab (above) things begin to get a little more interesting. Straight away you get drawn to the all green line for Nag’s Wag. Granted this data set is only for a handful of races as she is a three year old, however it is encouraging nonetheless. Nothing else particularly stands out, but if the view is switched from ‘win’ to ‘place’, then it shows Free To Love and Glastonberry as being consistent sorts.

As this is a six furlong race, the pace could potentially prove to be a leading indicator. From the coloured charts at the top of the page it can be seen there doesn’t initially appear to be any particularly strong bias as there are no green boxes. Horses that have led have the best figures but that is to be expected and it is actually on the low side here.

From looking at the pace percentages next to each horse, there are three runners that like to be very handy at the head of the field with another two being just off the pace. With these runners all taking each other on it could really set the race up for a hold up horse, with Quick March and Nag’s Wag fitting that bill perfectly.

With just seven runners I wouldn’t expect the draw to have any great impact on the outcome of the race, however we can see from the heat map that higher drawn horses generally fare the worst.

The Full Form Filter has a lot of options to look at, and I find the course characteristics can be a very powerful tool on occasions. A quick look at it for this race shows that Free To Love has very consistent form here at Bath, with two wins and two second places from just five runs in mostly top of the ground conditions.

All in all this is quite an intriguing race in which Nag’s Wag ticks enough of the boxes to be worth a consideration at a best price of 13/2.

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