Stat of the Day, 14th July 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

2.40 Catterick : Wotabreeze @ 9/2 (3.6/1 after 20p R4) BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen, held up, in rear, switched to outer over 2f out, headway to lead entering final furlong, pushed clear, won readily by three lengths easing off.)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

2.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Feed The Goater at 9/2 BOG

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Why?

He’s a lightly raced 3yr old gelding who has been there or thereabouts in all four starts to date, finishing 2124 so far. The ground has been too soft on his last two outings, the latest here over course and distance on soft ground 16 days ago. His best two runs came on better ground and the return to a true surface will help his cause here.

This theory has some legs, as he had Paco Pat over three lengths behind him last time out, but the latter has since (Monday) reappeared to win on quicker ground, but my focus today is on his trainer Richard Hannon and his jockey (the talented) Tom Marquand. So let’s cut to the chase and start with…

Trainer Richard Hannon, who from a fairly small number of runners has already been identified as a man to follow here at Chepstow, when the money is down, because his sub-5/1 runners at this venue are 17/42 (40.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 15.5pts at an ROI of 37%, and with this race in focus….

  • males are 16/35 (45.7%) for 17.3pts (+49.3%)
  • class 5 runners are 9/23 (39.1%) for 2.7pts (+11.7%)
  • handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 8.83pts (+52%)
  • on good to firm ground : 6/11 (54.6%) for 11.35pts (+103.2%)
  • over the 1m trip : 4/8 (50%) for 1.89pts (+23.6%)
  • and under Tom Marquand : 1/2 (50%) for 3.68pts (+184%)

I know these aren’t the biggest samples you’ll see in one of my pieces, but they’re certainly relelvant and I’m not the only one who likes the Hannon horses here at Chepstow…

…for I recall reading about them in the latest excellent renewal of TrainerTrackStats, which highlighted those Hannon horses who placed well last time out quite recently and weren’t running too far this time.

I won’t give away the exact specifics of what the guide says, but a loose interpretation that I applied was to take those with a top 6 finish LTO, 6 to 20 days ago now racing over 5f to 1m here at Chepstow.

Those runners are actually 11 from 22 (50% SR) for 18.04pts (+82% ROI) with those priced below 5/1 winning 10 of 15 (66.7%) for 14.82pts (+98.8%).

And if you want to read exactly what Gavin thinks is the optimum angle for the Hannon runners here at Chepstow, here’s how you can find out.

And now the jockey, Tom Marquand, whose own record here at Chepstow is decent with 15 winners from 58 (25.9% SR) for 42.4pts (+73.1% ROI), broken down as follows…

  • handicaps : 12/49 (24.5%) for 32.7pts (+66.7%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 12/36 (33.3%) for 37.9pts (+105.3%)
  • those racing over a mile and beyond are 12/34 (35.3%) for 51.2pts (+150.7%)
  • Class 5 : 7/25 (28%) for 19.2pts (+76.8%)

…and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Feed The Goater at 9/2 BOG with either Betfair’s Sportsbook or Hills, who were the market leaders at 5.25pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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