Stat of the Day, 15th July 2016

Thursday’s Result :

2.40 Chepstow : Feed The Goater @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, got up on line to win by a nose)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.05 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Wakame at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This horse’s last few results have been promising, closing last season off with a win and then finishing 242 in three runs this year. Only beaten by a short head last time out at Class 5 off today’s mark of 61, the drop down in to Class 6 (where he is 1 from 2 so far) could make all the difference just 7 days after that defeat. Incidentally, his previous win was also after a 7-day gap.

He’s trained by Ed de Giles, whose runners went 3 for 3 on Thursday at Chepstow and whose record in Flat handicaps is good, as the following figures (which don’t include the 3/3 on Thursday) will confirm, as…

since the start of the 2012 season, Ed’s Flat ‘cappers priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 43/213 (20.2% SR) for 45.9pts (+21.6% ROI), broken down as follows…

  • males are 42/210 (20%) for 45.7pts (+21.8%)
  • those racing over 1m to 1m4f are 28/115 (24.4%) for 51.5pts (+44.8%)
  • those 2nd or 3rd LTO are 15/68 (22.1%) for 11.2pts (+16.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 12/56 (21.4% SR) for 14.4pts (+25.7%)
  • and Class 6 runners are 11/20 (55%) for 47.2pts (+236%)

Wakame‘s chances are boosted by the booking of Jim Crowley to take the ride and although Jim doesn’t ride for Ed very often, they were 2 from 2 together on Thursday and Jim also has a good record of his own here at Nottingham with 16 winners from 63 (25.4% SR) and 30.6pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 48.5% since the start of the 2011 season.

Those 63 runners can be further analysed as follows…

  • those racing at this 8.5f trip and beyond are 13/41 (31.7%) for 36.2pts (+88.3%)
  • males are 13/40 (32.5%) for 35.6pts (+89.1%)
  • handicappers are 9/38 (23.7%) for 22.6pts (+59.4%)
  • those priced 15/8 to 7/1 are 12/34 (35.3%) for 30pts (+88.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/30 (23.3%) for 5.7pts (+19.1%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 3/9 (33.3%) for 5.76pts (+64%)

AND…male handicappers beyond a mile are 7/14 (50% SR) for 35pts (+250% ROI), of which 3 yr olds at 7/1 and shorter are 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.5pts (+263.8%)

…all of which means that the call is a 1pt win bet on Wakame at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who were the market leaders at 5.25pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Nottingham

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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