Stat of the Day, 16th July 2016

Friday’s Result :

5.05 Nottingham : Wakame @ 7/2 (3.15/1 after 10p R4) BOG WON at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd 3f out, led approaching final furlong, pressed inside final furlong, driven and ran on to win by a nose)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.30 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Golden Stunner at 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has been running consistently well ever since finishing 6th of 16 on debut last August and has subsequent form of 223211 with wins over a mile and 8.5 furlongs in her last two outings and she hails from a yard bang in form, supplying 7 winners from 22 over the last week, all trained by…

…Ralph Beckett, whose overall record since 2008 is excellent with 579 winners from 3494 (16.6% SR) for level stakes profits 699.6pts at an ROI of 20% and we can break those runners down in respect of today’s race, as follows…

  • those with a run in the last 75 days are 437/2488 (17.6%) for 541.4pts (+21.8%)
  • over trips of 6f to 8.5f : 329/2038 (16.1%) for 524pts (+25.7%)
  • female runners are 297/1771 (16.8%) for 538.6pts (+30.4%)
  • and those ridden by today’s jockey Jim Crowley are 220/1183 (18.6%) for 269.9pts (+22.8%)

AND…females racing over 6f to a mile within 75 days of their last run are 97/571 (17% SR) for 198.4pts (+34.7%), with Jim Crowley riding 38 winners from 195 (19.5%) for 66.2pts (+33.9%)

And that’s probably enough to suggest a decent run from Golden Stunner, but as it’s Saturday, let’s have some more! She’s also Ralph’s only runner at this track today and since 2008, when sending just one runner to a track, Mr Beckett has hit 287 winners from 1573 (18.3% SR) for profits of 341.5pts +21.7%), broken down as follows…

  • 3 yr olds are 159/838 (19%) for 194.9pts (+23.3%)
  • females are 155/798 (19.4%) for 269.2pts (+33.7%)
  • those ridden by Jim Crowley are 103/521 (19.8%) for 126.6pts (+24.3%)

AND…3 yr old females ridden by Jim Crowley are 39/153 (25.5% SR) for 139.9pts (+91.5%)

…all of which means the call is a 1pt win bet on Golden Stunner at 3/1 BOG with any one of around half a dozen or so firms offering the same price at 8.50pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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