Stat of the Day, 19th July 2016

Monday’s Result :

8.50 Windsor : Shifting Star @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Keen led, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, no extra)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

2.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Bridal March at 11/4 BOG


Quite simply, this one revolves around Mark Johnston and his generally good record here at Musselburgh, that also applies well to this type of race. So we’ll kick off with Mark’s record here since the start of 2012, which is excellent at 50 winners from 239 (20.9% SR) for 60.9pts (+25.5% ROI) profit.

Such figures alone are enough to create an interest in any of his runners at this venue, but here are my top 1o facts about his runners that apply to this particular race, which should hopefully strengthen (y)our confidence in the pick.

  1.  those with a run in the last 30 days : 32/165 (19.4%) for 52pts (+31.5%)
  2.  those ridden by Joe Fanning : 40/145 (27.6%) for 68.4pts (+47.2%)
  3.  female runners are 22/90 (24.4%) for 62.4pts (+69.3%)
  4.  class 5 runners are 26/77 (33.8%) for 26pts (+33.8%)
  5.   in non-handicap races : 20/66 (30.3%) for 40.2pts (+60.9%)
  6.  over the 7f trip : 17/66 (25.8% for 23pts (+34.8%)
  7.  2 year olds are 16/62 (25.8%) for 33.9pts (+54.6%)
  8.  unrated (OR) horses are 17/58 (29.3%) for 42.2pts (+72.8%)
  9.  in maidens : 16/48 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+53.7%)
  10.  in 2yo maidens: 10/36 (27.8%) for 21.3pts (+59.4%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above to close in on a smaller number of selections and there are loads of ways you could do that, but I’ll just give you one fairly generic example : Mark Johnston / Joe Fanning / Females / Class 5 within 30 days of last run = 6/15 (40%) for 15.34pts (+102.3%) and four of the last six have won.

…all of which means the call is a 1pt win bet on Bridal March at 11/4 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, who were the clear leaders in a sparsely populated market at 5.15pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Musselburgh

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Here is today’s racecard…

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