Stat of the Day, 20th July 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

2.45 Musselburgh : Shifting Star @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace, eased when held close home)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

5.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Pastoral Music at 7/2 BOG


Third when last seen 25 days ago, this 3 yr old gelding was only beaten by a length here on this track over 1m2f, finishing half a length behind a 74-rated runner-up, so a mark of 73 today seems fair for his handicap debut which sees him step up in trip by a couple of furlongs.

His yard is in good nick, as Hughie Morrison’s runners are 7/16 over last fortnight and 4/9 in the last seven days (he has one to run at 8.10 Tuesday, which will slighly alter those figures) and he does well enough enough with his handicap debutants, especially under today’s conditions, as we’ll now see!

Since the start of 2009, Hughie’s handicap debutants are 33/203 (16.3% SR) for 30.7pts (+15.2% ROI) and these are decent enough figures, but in the light of this contest, those runners are..

  • 24/159 (15.1%) for 24.3pts (+15.3%) as 3 yr olds
  • 17/113 (15%) for 34pts (+30.1%) 11 to 45 days after they last ran
  • 16/90 (17.8%) for 28.3pts (+31.4%) from his males
  • 15/83 (18.1%) for 36.8pts (+44.4%) at Class 5
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 37.5pts (+48%) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
  • 12/48 (25%) for 13pts (+27.1%) stepped up in trip by 1.5 to 2.5f
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 12.6pts (+30.7%) stepping up a class
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 16.8pts (+50.9%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO

…and this all means the call is a 1pt win bet on Pastoral Music at 7/2 BOG with either of 10Bet, BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who all headed the market at 5.55pm and to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 5.20 Lingfield

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Here is today’s racecard…

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