Stat of the Day, 21st July 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

5.20 Lingfield : Pastoral Music @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Well beaten by a winner who got first run and stole a massive lead)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

8.45 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Golden Wedding at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has enjoyed some success at this venue in recent times with 5 winners from 19 (26.3% SR) generating 44.2pts (+232.7% ROI) profit since last September and she comes here buoyed by the fact that her string are running really well.

In fact, she has saddled up 10 winners from 48 (20.8% SR) for 27.9pts (+58% ROI) profit over the last month and with this race in mind, those 48 are…

  • 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+57.8%) on the Flat
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 34.9pts (+85.1%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 9/30 (30%) for 19.7pts (+65.7%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 7/28 (25%) for 17.1pts (+60.9%) in handicaps
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 29.9pts (+271.7%) here at Newbury
  • and 2/3 (66.7%) for 6.67pts (+222.2%) ridden by today’s jockey Robert Winston.

Golden Wedding typifies the yard’s overall good form, as he comes here on the back of a string of seven consecutive top 3 finishes, including a course and distance win on similarly good to firm ground last time out a fortnight ago and his breeding suggests he’ll go well again today, as he’s by Archipenko, a stallion who is profitable to follow blindly.

But discarding his progeny’s runs over obstacles and concentrating on those racing over trips of 6f to 1m4f, you could make decent money from a 1-in-6 strike rate as those runners are 89/537 (16.6%) for 385.7pts (+71.8%) with 7f runners winning 19 of 106 (17.9%) for 184.5pts (+174.1%) and Newbury runners winning 3 of 14 (21.4%) for 4.87pts (+34.8%)

…and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Golden Wedding at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who headed the market at 5.40pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 8.45 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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