Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2016
Thursday’s Result :
8.45 Newbury : Golden Wedding @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 (Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held and beaten by a short head)
Friday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Courier at 11/4 BOG
Why?
Now, she might well be 0/9 on the Flat, but she’s ertainly due a win and has been running well over trips that are (in my opinion anyway) too long for her. She’s made the frame in 6 of those 9 Flat defeats, suggesting she’s there or thereabouts most of the time and has a habit of getting caught late on.
She likes it here at Thirsk, having gone well here in each of her last two outings, both over 7f and where she had led in both entering the final furlong, before being headed. A drop back to 6f in familiar surroundings might be all that it takes to get her off the mark.
This is backed up by the fact that her fellow Equiano progeny are 33/254 (13% SR) for 30.8pts (+12.1% ROI) over 5 to 6f in Flat handciaps, with a 14/84 (16.7%) record on Good to Firm ground generating 45.4pts (+54%) profit.
In addition to the drop in trip, she gets the benefit of trainer Marjorie Fife’s use of the 3lb claim from jockey Jacob Butterfield and although it’s a fairly small sample size, Marjorie’s Flat handicappers are 5 from 21 (23.8% SR) for 11.9pts (+56.7% ROI) when priced at 6/4 to 7/1 and ridden by a 3lb claimer in a Flat handicap since 2013. Of those 21 runners, those competing over 6 to 7.5 furlongs are 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.86pts (+165.1%)
…and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Courier at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who headed the market at 5.30pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk
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