Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2016

Thursday’s Result :

8.45 Newbury : Golden Wedding @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 (Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held and beaten by a short head)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

4.15 Thirsk :

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Courier at 11/4 BOG


Now, she might well be 0/9 on the Flat, but she’s ertainly due a win and has been running well over trips that are (in my opinion anyway) too long for her. She’s made the frame in 6 of those 9 Flat defeats, suggesting she’s there or thereabouts most of the time and has a habit of getting caught late on.

She likes it here at Thirsk, having gone well here in each of her last two outings, both over 7f and where she had led in both entering the final furlong, before being headed. A drop back to 6f in familiar surroundings might be all that it takes to get her off the mark.

This is backed up by the fact that her fellow Equiano progeny are 33/254 (13% SR) for 30.8pts (+12.1% ROI) over 5 to 6f in Flat handciaps, with a 14/84 (16.7%) record on Good to Firm ground generating 45.4pts (+54%) profit.

In addition to the drop in trip, she gets the benefit of trainer Marjorie Fife’s use of the 3lb claim from jockey Jacob Butterfield and although it’s a fairly small sample size, Marjorie’s Flat handicappers are 5 from 21 (23.8% SR) for 11.9pts (+56.7% ROI) when priced at 6/4 to 7/1 and ridden by a 3lb claimer in a Flat handicap since 2013. Of those 21 runners, those competing over 6 to 7.5 furlongs are 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.86pts (+165.1%)

…and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Courier at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who headed the market at 5.30pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

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Here is today’s racecard…

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