Stat of the Day, 25th July 2016

Saturday’s Result :

4.50 Newmarket : Bastille Day @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Held up in touch in rear, ridden over 1f out, never a factor, beaten by 2.5 lengths)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

6.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Eljaddaaf at 7/2 BOG


This 5yr old gelding has a record of 2110141 in A/W handicaps all over 6 or 7 furlongs and in his 6f runs, he’s always needed every inch (and sometimes more!) of the trip, suggesting 7 suits him better.

The above means he’s 4/7 in A/W handicaps and closer inspection of those 7 runs tells us that he has worn a hood each time and is 4 from 5 in fields of 11 or more runners, 3 from 4 after a break of 16 to 30 days, 3 from 5 under today’s jockey Robert Winston and 1 from 1 here at Wolverhampton (course and distance win).

So, he should be well suited by today’s conditions and confidence is increased by looking at his trainer, Dean Ivory’s record at this venue, where since 2010 the yard is 26/145 (17.9% SR) for 28.5pts (+19.7% ROI) profit, with his handicappers winning 23 of 112 (20.5%) for 48.1pts (+42.9%).

Those 112 ‘cappers can be broken down (with this race in mind) as follows…

  • those priced at 12/1 or shorter are 22/80 (27.5%) for 56.5pts (+70.7%)
  • those with a run in the last 30 days are 21/80 (26.3%) for 67.4pts (+84.2%)
  • those running in fields of 10 or more runners are 18/77 (23.4%) for 68.5pts (+89%)
  • male runners are 16/63 (25.4%) for 34.3pts (+54.5%)
  • those ridden by Robert Winston are 9/30 (30%) for 10.8pts (+35.9%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/16 (43.8%) for 6.35pts (+39.7%)

AND…Dean Ivory’s male Wolverhampton handicappers priced at 12/1 and shorter running in fields of 10 or more runners within 30 days of their last run are 11/25 (44% SR) for 57.7pts (+231%), of which Robert Winston is 5/8 (62.5%) for 21.08pts (+263.5%), LTO winners are 2/5 (40%) for 3.12pts (+62.4%) and Robeet Winston is 1 from 1 on an LTO winner.

…and from all of that, the call is a 1pt win bet on Eljaddaaf at 7/2 BOG which was pretty universally available at 7.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 6.40 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard…

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