Stat of the Day, 26th July 2016

Monday’s Result :

6.40 Wolverhampton : Eljaddaaf @ 7/2 BOG WON at 11/8 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, soon switch right, kept on to lead close home, winning by half a length)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

2.20 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Theydon Bois at 9/4 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has been stepped up in trip for each of her last two outings and it seems the further she’s asked to run, the better she performs. She has been a runner-up is each of her last two runs and was only beaten by a length when outpaced in the closing stages over 1m4f 12 days ago.

The step up to 2m might look a bit too much, but it’s worth noting that she’s a half-sister to a 2m2f Flat winner and that she has siblings who have won over hurdles beyond 2m too.

She’s trained by Peter Charalambous, whose runners always warrant a second glance from me, especially in handicaps, for the simple reason that they’re profitable to follow.

Backing all of the Peter’s Flat handicappers over the last 5 seasons (including this one) would have given you 22 winners from 130 (16.9% SR) with level stakes profits of 106.6pts equating to an excellent 82% return on your money with no filtering of selections, just “bet and forget”.

We can, however, look more closely at those 130 runners with a view to seeing how today’s race might suit them and we find that…

  • females are 15/100 (15%) for 95.4pts (+95.4%)
  • 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/92 (18.5%) for 114.4pts (+124.3%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 15/85 (17.7%) for 16.3pts (+19.2%)
  • his only runner anywhere of the day : 15/82 (18.3%) for 19.3pts (+23.6%)
  • those with a top 4 finish LTO : 13/62 (21%) for 92.8pts (+149.7%)
  • those ridden by Rosie Jessop : 10/57 (17.5%) for 26.4pts (+46.3%)
  • those priced at 15/2 and shorter : 18/54 (33.3%) for 47.4pts (+87.8%)
  • here at Yarmouth : 6/29 (20.7%) for 12.8pts (+44.2%)

And in addition to the above, it’s worth a quick glance at jockey Rosie Jessop’s own record here at Yarmouth, which stands at 7 from 33 (21.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+70.1%) since the start of the 2011 campaign, with the following of  particular interest today…

  • handicaps : 7/29 (24.1%) for 27.1pts (+93.6%)
  • trained by Peter Charalambous : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.2pts (+132.4%)
  • her only ride at the track that day : 6/18 (33.3%) for 33.1pts (+184.1%)
  • her only ride anywhere that day : 6/18 (33.3%) for 33.1pts (+184.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 11pts (+91.6%)
  • and over this 2m trip : 2/3 (66.7%) for 9pts (+300%)

…all of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on Theydon Bois at 9/4 BOG from either Bet365 or the Betfair Sportsbook who led the market at 5.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Yarmouth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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