Stat of the Day, 27th July 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

2.20 Yarmouth : Theydon Bois @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 15/8 (Led, took keen hold and hung badly right final circuit, ridden and headed over 3f out, virtually unrideable and no danger after)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.45 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG

Why?

This 2yr old colt’s figures currently read 13221 ahead of this Group 3 contest, with a half length defeat in a Group 2 race and then a win in a Listed contest 26 days ago his last two outings, so he’s in good nick.

Franny Norton was on board LTO taking the partnership’s record to 2 wins from 3 (131) and that augurs well for today, as does his yard’s record here at Goodwood in general.

But I want to focus on trainer Mark Johnston’s recent record at this Festival meeting, where since 2008, he has had 27 winners from 234 runners (11.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 112.4pts at an ROI of 48.1%, from which…

  • male runners are 23/185 (12.4%) for 107.6pts (+58.1%)
  • on good ground : 17/120 (14.2%) for 91.5pts (+76.2%)
  • those last seen 11-28 days ago are 16/117 (13.7%) for 98.3pts (+84%)
  • when he has had 2 runners in the same race : 12/72 (16.7%) for 71pts (+98.6%)
  • LTO winners are 8/58 (13.8%) for 32.8pts (+56.6%)

AND…since 2012, males on good ground 11 to 28 days after their last run are 5/10 (50% SR) for 69.4pts (+694% ROI).

Plus with Goodwood not being the easiest track to ride, we need a jockey well versed in the nuances of this venue, so step forward Franny Norton with his 14 winners from 92 rides (15.2% SR) here since 2011 that have generated level stakes profits of 82.7pts (+89.9% ROI), from which…

  • males are 11/63 (17.5%) for 88.5pts (+140.4%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 10/41 (24.4%) for 25.9pts (+63.1%)
  • with males at 8/1 or shorter winning 7 of 29 (24.1%) for 14.7pts (+50.6%)

…which all means, it’s a 1pt win bet on The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG from any one of the half dozen firms offering that price at 6.45pm, although to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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