Tuesday’s Result :
2.20 Yarmouth : Theydon Bois @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 15/8 (Led, took keen hold and hung badly right final circuit, ridden and headed over 3f out, virtually unrideable and no danger after)
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG
This 2yr old colt’s figures currently read 13221 ahead of this Group 3 contest, with a half length defeat in a Group 2 race and then a win in a Listed contest 26 days ago his last two outings, so he’s in good nick.
Franny Norton was on board LTO taking the partnership’s record to 2 wins from 3 (131) and that augurs well for today, as does his yard’s record here at Goodwood in general.
But I want to focus on trainer Mark Johnston’s recent record at this Festival meeting, where since 2008, he has had 27 winners from 234 runners (11.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 112.4pts at an ROI of 48.1%, from which…
- male runners are 23/185 (12.4%) for 107.6pts (+58.1%)
- on good ground : 17/120 (14.2%) for 91.5pts (+76.2%)
- those last seen 11-28 days ago are 16/117 (13.7%) for 98.3pts (+84%)
- when he has had 2 runners in the same race : 12/72 (16.7%) for 71pts (+98.6%)
- LTO winners are 8/58 (13.8%) for 32.8pts (+56.6%)
AND…since 2012, males on good ground 11 to 28 days after their last run are 5/10 (50% SR) for 69.4pts (+694% ROI).
Plus with Goodwood not being the easiest track to ride, we need a jockey well versed in the nuances of this venue, so step forward Franny Norton with his 14 winners from 92 rides (15.2% SR) here since 2011 that have generated level stakes profits of 82.7pts (+89.9% ROI), from which…
- males are 11/63 (17.5%) for 88.5pts (+140.4%)
- those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 10/41 (24.4%) for 25.9pts (+63.1%)
- with males at 8/1 or shorter winning 7 of 29 (24.1%) for 14.7pts (+50.6%)
…which all means, it’s a 1pt win bet on The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG from any one of the half dozen firms offering that price at 6.45pm, although to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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