Stat of the Day, 28th July 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

3.45 Goodwood : The Last Lion @ 100/30 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased leaders, went 2nd and edged right over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, never going pace of winner)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

5.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Oriental Relation at 7/2 BOG

Why?

A winner here over course and distance 9 days ago, making all last time out and similar tactics would serve him well again on a track that our racecard heatmap tells me rewards front runners from mid-placed draws and 5 of 8 is ideal here.

He’s up 5lbs for his win, but not only does his jockey’s claim negate the rise, he’s still some 13lbs lower than his A/W mark, so weight shouldn’t be an issue either.

Stats wise, he’s 8 from 35 (7/27 in hcps) running after a break of less them 3 weeks, 5/18 (4/14 in hcps) off a mark of 71-80 and 6/11 (5/9 in hcps) when priced at 4/1 and shorter, so conditions look set fair for him here.

Added to this is trainer James Given, whose 3 to 7 yr old handicappers running at Classes 5 to 7 with the CD logo next to their name and were LTO winners (anywhere!) are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 10.28pts (+54.1% ROI) since 2010, of which those racing over today’s 5f trip are 3/5 (60%) for 11.02pts (+220.4%) profit.

…meaning that it’s a 1pt win bet on Oriental Relation at 7/2 BOG from Bet365, BetVictor and/or Hills, who led the way at 6.15pm, although to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.10 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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