Thursday’s Result :
5.10 Nottingham : Oriental Relation @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led over 1f out, son ridden, headed final furlong, no extra)
Friday’s pick goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Thikriyaat at 11/4 BOG
They say that if at first, you don’t succeed, you should try again, so it’s a second visit of the week to Glorious Goodwood and here’s why…
Thikriyaat really caught the eye when making up plenty of ground to finish second behind Ribchester in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Ascot, just over six weeks ago.
He’d met serious trouble in running from the 19-runner field and this ended his perfect 3 from 3 start to his career, which kicked off with a win over this 1m trip. So we know he gets the trip and the way he finished last time suggests the step back up is right and with fewer rivals to contend with, a clearer passage might be all that’s needed.
He was eventually just over 2 lengths adrift of Ribchester that day, but we can draw confidence in the latter’s narrow (NK & SH) defeat in 3rd place behind The Gurkha and Galileo Gold in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes here over this course and distance on Wednesday.
His yard is in great form with 7 winners from 19 (36.8% SR) over the last 7 days, including 3 wins from 7 Class 1 races and stablemate Ulysses won a Group 3 contest here on Wednesday.
Looking slightly further than the last week, Sir Michael Stoute’s male runners here at Goodwood are 28/121 (23.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+18.3% ROI) profits. Of particular relevance today are the facts that, like Thikriyaat…
- 3/4 yr olds are 26/96 (27.1%) for 41.2pts (+42.9%)
- 16-60 days since last run : 22/82 (26.8%) for 39.2pts (47.8%)
- at 5/1 or shorter : 24/77 (31.2%) for 11.74pts (+15.25%)
- fields of 7-12 runners : 20/68 (29.4%) for 31.4pts (+46.2%)
- in 3yo only races : 15/55 (27.3%) for 19.2pts (+34.9%)
- Class 1 : 8/36 (22.2%) for 13.8pts (+38.4%)
- beaten by 1 to 4 lengths LTO : 7/24 (29.2%) for 7.32pts (+30.5%)
- 2nd LTO : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.28pts (+23%)
- at group 3 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 9.73pts (+60.8%)
AND…if you backed all of Sir Michael’s males here since 2009 who were aged 3 or 4, priced at 7/1 or shorter in fields of 7 to 17 runners some 16 to 60 days after their last run, you’d have bagged yourself 17 winners from 39 (43.6% SR) and a £20 stake on each of them would have made you a cool £650 at an ROI of 83.4%.
Oh, and of those 39 runners in the niche micro above, Group 3 runners are 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 13pts (+185.5%), obviously including Ulysses from Wednesday!
…all of which points to a 1pt win bet on Thikriyaat at 11/4 BOG which was available in over a dozen places at 11.15pm, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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