Stat of the Day, 1st August 2016

Saturday’s Result :

8.45 Hamilton : Lara Carbonara @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Towards rear, ridden over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd place close home)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

4.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mister Bob at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance last time out, 26 days ago and despite a 2lb rise, still receives weight all round. He has already won five of his sixteen starts on the A/W, including…

• 4/9 under jockey Ted Durcan
• 4/8 in fields of 8 or fewer runners
• 3/7 on Polytrack
• 2/4 here at Kempton
• 2/3 (211) over this 2m trip (and has also won at 1m 7.5f and 2m 0.5f)
• 2/2 over course and distance

His trainer James Bethell is 5 from 18 in the last 30 days and 3/9 in the last fortnight and has an A/W handicap record of 21 wins from 150 (14% SR) for 30.7pts (+20.5% ROI) since 2010, of which…

• those last seen 16-45 days ago are 19/94 (20.2%)
• top 5 finish LTO : 17/94 (18.1%) for 21.7pts (+23.1%)
• at evens to 8/1 : 19/86 (22.1%) for 28.3pts (+32.9%)
• with Ted Durcan in the saddle : 13/53 (24.5%) for 28.3pts (+53.5%)
• here at Kempton : 737 (18.9%) for 23.2pts (+62.6%)
• LTO winners : 5/22 (22.7%) for 0.87pts (+3.95%)
• 7yr olds : 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.05pts (+77.3%)

AND…in all races here at Kempton since 2012 the Durcan/Bethell alliance is 6/24 (25%) for 30.8pts (+128.3%), with 5 wins from 21 in handicaps (23.8%) for profits of 22.7pts (+108.1%).

…and so, it’s… a 1pt win bet on Mister Bob at 7/2 BOG which was available in around a dozen places at 11.15pm, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…