Race of the Day – 1 Aug

Race of the Day – 20:30 Windsor

We go to the evening card at Windsor for today’s Race of the Day and a ten furlong handicap with eight runners.

It is a really tight looking race with the field covered by just five pounds on official ratings. Princess Eva is top of the pile on the Speed Ratings and she is currently the 7/2 favourite.

This is a race for three years old and upwards and half of the field are three, which means they will receive a weight allowance from the older horses. They will obviously be less experienced, but in a contest as tight as this one those extra few pounds could make all the difference.

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On the Instant Expert tab there are no runners that have massive positives here. Both Tatawu and Dubawi Light show up well in this class and distance and Officer Drivel has one place from one run at the course and the rest of his line is amber which shows reasonable results under today’s conditions. Certainly nothing to get excited about however.

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From the Pace tab we can see that there are a few horses that usually like to lead, or at least be prominent in their races and leaders have an almost 20% win record here over this distance.

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The Heat Map and Draw / Run Style Combinations are quite interesting as they show some good numbers for horses that are held up and drawn mid to high. Having this combination actually shows a positive win P/L to level stakes from a data set of 44 runs. Apache Song is drawn highest and likes to be held up whilst both Princess Eva and Senza Una Donna look likely to be held up off the pace and are coming from centre draws so fit the criteria mentioned above.

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All in all this is a pretty tough race to choose a winner. After going through the above, if I was having a bet I would stick to a three year that likes to be held up and is drawn in one of the mid to high stalls.

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