Stat of the Day, 6th August 2016

Friday’s Result :

5.00 Musselburgh : Amirli @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden to lead briefly over 1f out, kept on one pace and lost 2nd inside final furlong)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Tapis Libre at 9/2 BOG


This 8yr old gelding is making just his third start for Jacqueline Coward today, but has impressed his new handler so far, winning first time out over this 1m4f trip at Epsom (Class 4, good ground), before a 1.75 length defeat in third place last time out.

That was also over this trip on good ground (he likes it a bit quicker), but in his defence that was up at Class 2 level. Down in class today off the same mark and on a quicker surface, conditions look perfect for a horse…

…who has won 11 of 50 (22% SR) Flat handicaps to date, rewarding his followers with level stakes profits of 22.5pts at an ROI of 45%. I suggested conditions would suit him today, because from those 50 hcp runs, he is…

  • 10/27 (37%) for 34pts (+125.8%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 15.54pts (+86.3%) over trips of 1m4f / 1m4.5f
  • 6/16 (162.5%) for 17.22pts (+107.6%) in the July/August period
  • 9/13 (69.2%) for 39.2pts (+301.4%) at odds of 15/2 and shorter
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 24pts (+184.5%) on good to firm ground
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 20.7pts (+159%) under today’s jockey Joanna Mason
  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.94pts (+165.7%) in cheekpieces
  • and 1/1 here at Haydock, which was a course and distance success, yielding 7.78pts at Betfair SP.

…leading me to… a 1pt win bet on Tapis Libre at 9/2 BOG with either BetVictor, Coral and/or SkyBet, who led the way at 6.05pm. Betfred/Totesport were offering the same price, but don’t/won’t go BOG until morning and to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.35 Haydock

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Here is today’s racecard…

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