Stat of the Day, 11th August 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

6.50 Bath : Go On Go On Go On @ 11/4 BOG (2.48/1 after R4) WON at 13/8 (Pressed leaders, led halfway, ridden over 1f out, ran on to won by 2.5 lengths comfortably)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

5.05 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Novoman at 5/1 BOG


Backing inexperienced horses is a 2yr old maiden against a host of unknown quantities is clearly fraught with danger, but when you weigh up the risk/reward ratio, 5/1 BOG is too much to turn down for a horse that shaped well enough on debut to finish third despite badly missing the break and who is ridden by Pat Cosgrave for William Haggas.

So, let’s start with jockey Pat Cosgrave, shall we? He’s in excellent form, winning 11 of his 38 rides (29% SR) over the last 14 days , from which he’s 8/14 (57.1%) for 13.44pts (+96%) on the Haggas horses, who themselves are 16/52 (30.8%) in that same 14-day timeframe.

And now onto Yarmouth, where Pat has ridden 22 winners from 133 (16.5% SR) for 143pts (+107.5% ROI) since 2010, of which he’s 3/14 (21.4%) for Mr Haggas, whose own record here since 2011 is the backbone of today’s selection with his 34 winners from 119 (28.6% SR) runners generating 41pts profit at an ROI of 34.4%, with the following of particular relevance here…

  • those with at least 11 days rest since their last run are 34/114 (29.8%) for 46pts (+40.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm : 29/95 (26.3%) for 38.9pts (+41%)
  • in fields of 11 runners or less : 32/92 (34.8%) for 60.2pts (+65.4%)
  • at Evens to 7/1 : 27/79 (34.2%) for 40.4pts (+51.1%)
  • horses with just 1 to 5 previous outings : 28/78 (35.9%) for 48.2pts (+61.8%)
  • those with a top 7 finish LTO : 26/73 (35.6%) for 58.8pts (+80.6%)
  • males are 16/58 (27.6%) for 34.6pts (+59.6%)
  • 2 yr olds are 9/44 (20.5%) for 11.87pts (+27%)
  • at Class 4 : 10/27 (37%) for 25.23pts (+93.4%)
  • those making their 2nd start are 5/20 (25%) for 11.68pts (+58.4%)
  • and over 7 furlongs : 7/14 (50%) for 43pts (+307.1%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Novoman at 5/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Betbright, SkyBet and/or BetVictor, who led the way at 6.00pm. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Yarmouth.

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Here is today’s racecard…

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