Saturday’s Result :
5.00 Newmarket : Roll On Rory @ 7/1 BOG WON at 11/2 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by two lengths)
Monday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Santiburi Spring at 7/2 BOG
This very consistent 3 yr old filly returns to action after an 80-day rest period that was preceded by a decent run of form that saw her finish 32223 in her five runs this year. That’s arguably the best on offer today and she gets the dual benefit of a 9lbs weight for age allowance allied to the booking of jockey Kieren Fox today.
The weight allowance is self-explanatory, 9lbs is always useful, but the jockey? Well, he certainly knows his way around this circuit, winning 15 of his 54 (27.8% SR) rides here so far, rewarding followers with level stakes profits of 83.7pts at an ROI of 155%.
Those 54 rides include the following…
- handicaps : 13/44 (29.6%) for 45.1pts (+102.4%)
- over 1m to 1m 6f : 10/27 (37%) for 92.1pts (+341%)
- and in handicaps over 1m to 1m 6f : 8/21 (38.1%) for 49.4pts (+235.4%)
Her trainer, John Best is also in possession of a good track record with 8 of his 40 runners (20% SR) winning here too, providing profits of 35pts (+87.4% ROI) along the way, of which…
- those ridden by Kieren Fox are 8/34 (23.5%) for 41pts (+120.5%)
- handicappers are 7/31 (22.6%) for 36.1pts (+116.5%)
- over 8 to 10 furlongs : 6/23 (26.1%) for 42.1pts (+183.2%)
- 3/4 yr olds : 6/22 (27.3%) for 42pts (+191.1%)
- at an SP of 2/1 to 6/1 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 16.1pts (+94.7%)
AND… the Best / Fox / Chelmsford handicap angle = 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 41.1pts (+158.1% ROI)
But we can analyse those 26 runners yet even closer, as those racing over 8 to 10 furlongs are 5/15 (33.3%) for 42.3pts (+281.9%) and 3/4 yr olds are 5/13 (38.5%) for 43.2pts (+322.3%)
AND…Best / Fox / Chelmsford 3-4 yr old handicappers over 8 to 10 furlongs = 4/10 (40% SR) for 41.78pts (+417.8% ROI), with those priced at 2/1 to 5/1 winning 3 of 3!
…and that’s why it’s… a 1pt win bet on Santiburi Spring at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 and/or BetVictor, who were clear market leaders at 8.55pm. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS