Stat of the Day, 16th August 2016

Monday’s Result :

3.00 Chelmsford : Santiburi Spring @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

7.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mayasa at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is returning from a well earned six week break after a course and distance win here last time out capped a fine run of form where she finished 1231 (all on the A/W). That run last time out was her first crack at this trip and she’s the only course and distance winner in the field.

As a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, she gets a very handy/useful 10lbs weight for age allowance and in support of her chances, it’s worth mentioning that she’s 2 from 5 in the blinkers she wears today, she’s 2 from 4 within 50 days of her last run and 2 from 2 when shorter than 8/1.

Her trainer, James Tate is having an excellent August, with 5 wins from 20 (25% SR) so far, generating profits of 10.43pts (+52.15% ROI), with his handicappers winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 14.43pts (+90.2%).

He also does well here at Wolves with 47 winners from 232 (20.3% SR) for 28.9pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2013, from which…

  • females are 24/127 (18.9%) for 28.5pts (+22.5%)
  • those last seen 21 to 75 days ago are 24/95 (25.3%) for 67.8pts (+71.3%)
  • and those ridden by Martin Harley are 3/15 (20%) for 6.72pts (+44.8%)

and females returning from a break of 31-75 days are 9/30 (30%) for 59.5pts (+198.4%).

As seen above Martin Harley has a 20% strike rate from a small sample size of Tate runners here at Dunstall Park, but that’s unsurprising to me, because he’s actually ridden 72 winners from 409 (17.6% SR) rides at this venue since 2012, returning level stakes profits of some 233pts at an ROI of 57%.

…all of which points to… a 1pt win bet on Mayasa at 4/1 BOG, which was offered by 10BET, Betfair Sports, BetVictor and Coral at 5.55pm, a price still on offer in four places after my update at 7.50pm.

Those of you unable/unwilling to use any of those firms can avail yourselves of the 7/2 BOG which is in plentiful supply elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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