Stat of the Day, 18th August 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

3.55 Carlisle : Moonlightnavigator @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/2 (Keen, tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, faded inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

5.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Prendergast Hill at 6/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has been running well of late and a win here wouldn’t be out of turn for a horse that has finished 28133 in his last five outings and can consider himself unlucky not to be coming here on the back of a win.

He was beaten by just a length and a half 10 days ago after being carried left and then hampered in the final half furlong, whilst trying to get on terms. I think he could well have won that without the interference and provided he keeps out of trouble, he should go well off the same mark, but down in class.

He has two wins and four further places from 10 Flat starts to date, including 2 wins and 2 places from 5 under today’s jockey Jim Crowley and he handles good to firm ground easily enough.

He’s trained by Ed de Giles whose runners in the last week have finished 121821 and whose Flat handicappers priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 46/238 (19.3% SR) for 48.4pts (+20.3% ROI) since 2012. With today’s race in mind, those 238 runners can be broken down as follows..

  • males are 45/234 (19.2%) for 49.2pts (+21%)
  • those last seen 10-45 days ago are 40/19 (20.4%) for 66.8pts (+34.1%)
  • 4-8 yr olds are 33/160 (+20.6%) for 53pts (+33.1%)
  • those beaten by 1 to 10 lengths LTO are 27/132 (20.5%) for 55.6pts (+42.1%)
  • on good to firm ground : 20/82 (24.4%) for 45.8pts (+55.8%)
  • over 11.5/12 furlongs : 7/20 (35%) for 25.14pts (+125.7%)
  • ridden by Jim Crowley : 3/15 (20%) for 3.57pts (+23.8%)
  • here at Chepstow : 4/10 (40%) for 12.9pts (+129%)

AND…from the above : Males aged 4-8 yrs old who lost by less than 10 lengths 10-45 days ago are 24/93 (25.8% SR) for 74.7pts (+80.3% ROI) profit, of which…

  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 49.9pts (+113.3%) on good to firm
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 14pts (+200%) over this 1m 4f trip
  • 2/5 (40%) for 8.5pts (+170%) here at Chepstow
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 13pts (+325%) over 1m 4f on good to firm ground.

…which leads me to… a 1pt win bet on Prendergast Hill at 6/1 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sportsbook at 5.50pm, whilst both Betway and Hills were quoting 11/2 BOG, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Chepstow.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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