Sat TV Trends: 20th Aug 2016

The C4 cameras remain at York for the final day of their Ebor Meeting, plus they also head to Sandown to take in three more races. As always Andy Newton’s on hand with all the key trends.

YORK Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.15 – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y CH4

13/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/13 – Had won at least twice in the their career
12/13 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Had won over a mile before
9/13 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/13 – Favourites to finish in the top three
8/13 – Placed horses from stall 2
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
7/13 – Previous Group race winners
6/13 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – Won by Godolphin
5/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/13 – Had won at York before
Custom Cut won the race in 2014
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat

2.50 – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4

11/13 – Not raced at York before
11/13 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/13 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f or further
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
10/13 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
8/13  – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
7/13 – Winning distance 1 length or less
5/13 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1

3.25 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f CH4

13/13 – Won just 1-2 times before
13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Won just once before
8/13 – Foaled in March or later
8/13 – Had won over 6f before
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – Won by a March foal
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
2/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

4.00 – Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4

14/14 – Carried 9-4 or less
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Won from a double-figure stall
11/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/14 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/14 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Had run at York before
5/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/14 – Winning favourites
Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 23/1

SANDOWN Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.30 – Redrock Entertainment Atalanta Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m14y CH4

12/14 – Winning distance 1 ¼ or less
12/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/14 – Had won over a mile before
10/14 – Aged 3 years-old
10/14 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
9/14 – Rated between 98 and 108
9/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Had won 3 or more times before
9/14 – Had won a Listed or Group class race
5/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Had run at Sandown before
4/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 11/2

3.05 – TCA Abu Dhabi Solario Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f16y CH4

13/14 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/14 – Had won at least one race before
13/14 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
12/14 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Won last time out
9/14 – Had 2 or more previous runs
8/14 – Had won over 7f before
8/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/14 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
2/14 – Won by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda (two of last 5 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

3.40 – National Feed & Flour Production Handicap Cl2 1m2f7y CH4

12/14 – Ran at either Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time
12/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/14 – Had 4 or more runs that season
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/14 – Won 3 or more times before
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had run at Sandown before (4 won)
8/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 –Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

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“Take Cover took this race in 2014 and a close second 12 months ago so no issues on the track and trip. Didn’t work out at Ascot last time out as the ground went too soft for him and the draw not ideal. In really good form at home and at this course and on this quicker ground confident of a good run. Tough race, but looks a great e/w price.”
David C Griffiths

29/07/16 1st 8/1

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