Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2016

Monday’s Result :

2.30 Brighton : Indus Valley @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

6.20 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Alizoom at 5/1 BOG

Why?

After a bit of a quiet spell, both trainer Roger Varian and jockey Jack Mitchell seem to be coming back in to some semblance of form, as over the last 10 days, 3 of Roger’s 9 runners have won, whilst Jack has ridden 3 winners and 2 placers from just 6 efforts.

Form comes and goes (as I know only too well!), but long-term you could do far worse than follow Roger Varian’s handicappers, particularly those that fall in the general SotD price range. I like to put selections up in the 11/4 to 13/2 kind of area and at those prices, the Varian handicappers are 76/340 (22.4% SR) for 95.1pts (+28% ROI).

And to be honest with you, those kind of numbers speak for themselves and as Roger’s only such horse today, I’d be happy enough to go with it on that basis alone. I am, however, acutely aware, that some of you like a little more meat on the bones via some extra reasoning, so here goes…

Of those 340 runners :

  • those racing on good / good to firm (as forecasted here) : 60/247 (24.3%) for 97.6pts (+39.5%)
  • 3 year olds are 54/217 (24.9%) for 95.7pts (+44.1%)
  • those with a top 4 finish LTO on the last 4-15 days : 14/49 (28.6%) for 23.1pts (+47.2%)
  • those competing over this 7f trip are 13/43 (30.2%) for 26pts (+60.4%)
  • and those ridden by Jack Mitchell are 3/15 (20%) for 2.01pts (+13.4%)

…leading to… a 1pt win bet on Alizoom at 5/1 BOG, from either Hills or BetVictor who led the way at 5.55pm, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.20 Newbury.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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