Stat of the Day, 24th August 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

6.20 Newbury : Alizoom @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Took keen hold, held up in rear, headway 2f out, soon squeezed through chasing leading pair over 1f out, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

6.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossetti at 11/4 BOG

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Why?

(i) The trainer…

Neil Mulholland is 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 197.8pts (+482.5% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013 (the high profits indicative of the difference between Betfair SP and ISP!), and of those 41 runners…

  • males are 6/31 (19.4%) for 190.7pts (+615.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 194.3pts (+777.2%)
  • at this 2m 0.5f trip : 6/19 (31.6%) for 217.4pts (+124.2%)
  • and handicap hurdlers over today’s 2m 0.5f trip are 3/5 (60% SR) for 6.21pts (+124.2%)

(ii) The jockey…

Noel Fehily also has a decent record here at this venue and since 2009, his figures show that he has achieved the following…

  • 10/56 (17.9%) for 22.5pts (+40.1%) in handicaps
  • 11/52 (21.2%) for 12.6pts (+24.2%) over hurdles
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 24.8pts (+95.4%) in handicap hurdles
  • 6/18  (33.3%) for 32.8pts (+182.2%) in hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.4pts (+176.2%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.4pts (+237.6%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f, including the success of Rossetti last time out.

(iii) And the horse?

Three wins from 19 in a reasonable but not earth shattering Flat career, before a break of almost two years, a change of yard and a reappearance three months ago as a hurdler.

A runner-up finish on his hurdling debut at Southwell has been followed by to more efforts to date, both here at Stratford, both over this trip and both were successful, initially at Class 4 and then a facile 11 lengths victory at Class 3 last time out, 27 days ago, when he really could have won by any margin

Of interest from that last win is the fact that the well beaten runner-up, only went down by half a length in a Class 2 race at Perth on Saturday off a mark of 125, which suggests that 134 might not be beyond our boy today.

All three of his NH runs have been in the hood he sports again today and Noel Fehily (1/1 on the horse) retains the ride from last time.

AND… since 2012, 5 to 9 yr old male handicap hurdlers with at least one prior course and distance win to their name and who were also winners LTO are 158 from 671 (23.6% SR) for 160.8pts (+24% ROI), including…

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 91/375 (24.3%) for 181pts (+48.3%)
  • those who won by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 76/261 (29.1%) for 78.4pts (+30%)
  • Class 3 runners are 43/153 (28.1%) for 167.9pts (+109.7%)
  • and Class 3 runners who won by 3 to 15 lengths last time out, 11 to 30 days ago are 12 from 38 (31.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+65.6% ROI)

…pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Rossetti at 11/4 BOG, from any of the half dozen or so firms all quoting that price at 7.35pm, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.20 Stratford.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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