Friday’s Result :
2.55 Thirsk : Ginger Jack @ 7/2 BOG (2.45/1 after R4) 2nd at 15/8 (In rear, headway over 2f out, ridden and edged left and every chance inside final furlong, kept on and held near finish, beaten by a neck)
Saturday’s pick goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Noble Call at 11/2 BOG
Joanne Foster’s 8 yr old gelding had a poor record for a number of handlers over in Ireland, but impressed when winning by 5 lengths on his yard debut on similarly good to soft ground at Bangor 8 days ago and his team are looking to strike again whilst the iron is hot.
Joanne doesn’t have the biggest / most famous / prolific etc etc string of horses at her disposal, but she’s good at what she know best, low grade handicap hurdles and I don’t mean that disrespectfully : these are the bread and butter races in my opinion.
Since 2010, her record in handicap hurdles stands at 10 winners from 90 (11.1% SR) for 161.7pts (+179.7% ROI), a decent enough starting point for discovering where her strengths lie and this race tells us that her runners are…
- 10/83 (12.1%) for 168.7pts (+203.3%) from her males
- 9/69 (13%) for 155pts within 8 weeks of their last run
- 10/60 (16.7%) for 191.7pts (+319.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m 5.5f
- 9/58 (15.5%) for 186pts (+320.7%) from her 6 to 8 yr olds
- 5/46 (10.9%) for 141.1pts (+306.7%) at Class 5
- 6/39 (15.4%) for 11.74pts (+30.1%) from those priced at 7/2 to 12/1
all very creditable, but start putting those together in combos and the magic really starts to unfold…
…as 6-8 yo males running over 2m to 2m 5.5f within 8 weeks of their last run are 8 from 32 (25% SR) for 184.3pts (+575.8% ROI), from which those priced at 5/2 to 16/1 are 7/18 (38.9%) for 46.2pts (+256.8%) and Class 5 runners are 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 172.1pts (+1147.3%).
AND…Joanne Foster’s 6-8 yo male Class 5 handicap hurdlers priced at 5/2 to 16/1 running over 2m to 2m 5.5f within 8 weeks of their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 26.05pts (+289.4% ROI).
Not bad, eh? But wait, there’s more (as a famous Irish “comedian” used to say), because since 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle last time out by 4 lengths or more in the last 60 days, went on to “double up” on no less than 312 of 1227 (25.4% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of some 209.5pts (+17.1% ROI).
And of those 1227 runners…
- 5 to 10 yr olds are 299/1151 (26%) for 213pts (+18.5%)
- 4-25 dslr = 252/878 (28.7%) for 190.7pts (+21.7%)
- at Class 5 : 65/173 (37.6%) for 72.1pts (+41.7%)
AND…5-10 yr olds in Class 5 races, 4-25 days since their last run are 57/138 (41.3% SR) for 73pts (+52.9% ROI)
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Noble Call at 11/2 BOG, from any of Bet365, BetVictor and/or SkyBet all quoting that price at midnight (I’ve been out!), but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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