Stat of the Day, 27th August 2016

Friday’s Result :

2.55 Thirsk : Ginger Jack @ 7/2 BOG (2.45/1 after R4) 2nd at 15/8 (In rear, headway over 2f out, ridden and edged left and every chance inside final furlong, kept on and held near finish, beaten by a neck)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

5.45 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Noble Call at 11/2 BOG

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Why?

Joanne Foster’s 8 yr old gelding had a poor record for a number of handlers over in Ireland, but impressed when winning by 5 lengths on his yard debut on similarly good to soft ground at Bangor 8 days ago and his team are looking to strike again whilst the iron is hot.

Joanne doesn’t have the biggest / most famous / prolific etc etc string of horses at her disposal, but she’s good at what she know best, low grade handicap hurdles and I don’t mean that disrespectfully : these are the bread and butter races in my opinion.

Since 2010, her record in handicap hurdles stands at 10 winners from 90 (11.1% SR) for 161.7pts (+179.7% ROI), a decent enough starting point for discovering where her strengths lie and this race tells us that her runners are…

  • 10/83 (12.1%) for 168.7pts (+203.3%) from her males
  • 9/69 (13%) for 155pts within 8 weeks of their last run
  • 10/60 (16.7%) for 191.7pts (+319.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m 5.5f
  • 9/58 (15.5%) for 186pts (+320.7%) from her 6 to 8 yr olds
  • 5/46 (10.9%) for 141.1pts (+306.7%) at Class 5
  • 6/39 (15.4%) for 11.74pts (+30.1%) from those priced at 7/2 to 12/1

all very creditable, but start putting those together in combos and the magic really starts to unfold…

as 6-8 yo males running over 2m to 2m 5.5f within 8 weeks of their last run are 8 from 32 (25% SR) for 184.3pts (+575.8% ROI), from which those priced at 5/2 to 16/1 are 7/18 (38.9%) for 46.2pts (+256.8%) and Class 5 runners are 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 172.1pts (+1147.3%).

AND…Joanne Foster’s 6-8 yo male Class 5 handicap hurdlers priced at 5/2 to 16/1 running over 2m to 2m 5.5f within 8 weeks of their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 26.05pts (+289.4% ROI).

Not bad, eh? But wait, there’s more (as a famous Irish “comedian” used to say), because since 2012, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle last time out by 4 lengths or more in the last 60 days, went on to “double up” on no less than 312 of 1227 (25.4% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of some 209.5pts (+17.1% ROI).

And of those 1227 runners…

  • 5 to 10 yr olds are 299/1151 (26%) for 213pts (+18.5%)
  • 4-25 dslr = 252/878 (28.7%) for 190.7pts (+21.7%)
  • at Class 5  : 65/173 (37.6%) for 72.1pts (+41.7%)

AND…5-10 yr olds in Class 5 races, 4-25 days since their last run are 57/138 (41.3% SR) for 73pts (+52.9% ROI)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Noble Call at 11/2 BOG, from any of Bet365, BetVictor and/or SkyBet all quoting that price at midnight (I’ve been out!), but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Cartmel.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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